FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC (FERG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$228.41+2.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FERG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Higher capital spending may show strong growth plans and future needs.
Supportive ifCapital spending was over $425 million for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending was under $375 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the margin range shows good cost management and efficiency.
Supportive ifThe operating margin stays between 9.4% and 9.8%. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifIf the operating margin drops below 9.4%, it raises concerns about costs.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth is critical for meeting annual targets. Continued decline could raise concerns.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth shows low to mid-single digit increase.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains negative or below low single digits.
Why it matters: Updates may show confidence in cash flow and future results.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks beyond the $2 billion limit.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in share repurchase plans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$137 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $310 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,831 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This would validate management's strategy and support future growth. Failure to meet this could raise doubts.
Supportive ifAcquisition results show adjusted EPS goes up right away.
Worry ifAcquisition results do not show EPS increase right away.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the industrials sector. This would be important for Ferguson's long-term outlook.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 7%.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth stays at or below 5%.
Why it matters: Keeping this growth shows strong performance despite market challenges. It backs management's plans.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported at 4% or higher year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show confidence in financial health and a promise to return cash to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases reported at over $200 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $100 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would help Ferguson reach more customers and improve flow control solutions.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of FloWorks closes as planned in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe deal might be delayed or not close because of regulatory problems.