FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC (FERG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$248.53+2.70%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FERG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
Why it matters: Strong non-residential sales and project orders have helped offset weak home markets. Slower growth would weaken this support.
Watch forQ3 U.S. non-residential sales grow at least 8% year over year, with open orders still growing.
Also watch forQ3 U.S. non-residential sales growth falls below 5%, or open orders decline year over year.
Why it matters: Residential markets make up about half of U.S. sales. Ferguson grew there despite weak building and repair demand.
Worry ifQ3 U.S. residential sales fall year over year after rising 2% in Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 U.S. residential sales grow year over year, matching or topping Q2's 2% gain.
Why it matters: FloWorks adds about $1 billion in yearly sales and targets industrial growth markets. Its close and early results will test the deal case.
Supportive ifFerguson confirms FloWorks closed in Q3. Then it reports added sales and adjusted earnings per share growth, before one-time deal costs.
Worry ifThe deal does not close in Q3. Or Ferguson reports no added sales or growth in adjusted earnings per share after closing.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 sales goal to mid-single digit growth. Q3 results will test that goal amid weak home markets.
Supportive ifOn November 9, Q3 net sales growth is at least 5% year over year. Management keeps its mid-single digit 2026 sales goal.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth is below 4% year over year, or management cuts its 2026 sales goal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,965 loss on $10,000 · 19.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.