FutureFuel Corp. (FF)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.26-0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -5.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FF — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-31
Other Events On August 31, 2026, FutureFuel Corp. (NYSE: FF) ("FutureFuel”) issued a press release announcing that it has declared its fourth quarter 2026 cash dividend of U.S. $0.01 per share payable to shareholders of record on December 4, 2026. The dividend will be paid on December 18, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Why it matters: Higher production rates show better operations. This can increase revenue in Biofuels.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, biodiesel production was over 21 million gallons.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, biodiesel production was under 20 million gallons.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports liquidity and growth initiatives. It shows the company's financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $18 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $10 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New customer wins can drive revenue growth and improve asset optimization. This supports the Chemicals segment's expansion.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new customer contracts in the Chemicals segment.
Worry ifNo new customer contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Positive Adjusted EBITDA shows that FutureFuel is on track for a strong recovery. It confirms management's goal for the full year.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was more than $11 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA was under $0.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $394 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,085 loss on $10,000 · 30.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive Adjusted EBITDA shows that the company is making progress. This means better financial health.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is positive. This shows improved earnings.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA is still negative. This shows ongoing profit challenges.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows ongoing demand and good management.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue growth was over 100% year-over-year, following Q2's 120.6% rise.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth was below 80%, showing possible demand issues.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth may signal a recovery for FutureFuel.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported as positive for the first time in three years.
Also watch forSector revenue growth is still negative. This shows continued decline.
Why it matters: Getting these proceeds would improve cash flow and help future growth.
Supportive if$22 million in gross proceeds from tax credits received as expected in Q4 2026.
Worry ifProceeds from tax credits were under $10 million, showing possible funding gaps.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows confidence in cash flow despite money issues.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.01 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe company suspends or cuts the dividend further.