Reading FHB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FHB free→Reading FHB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FHB free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some inconsistency in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may affect performance. Compared with sector peers, FHB is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 FHB trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $28 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.61x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.55 → $0.58 (+5.1% / 30d). 9 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$85.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$230.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,467.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
Valuation changed. It rose to a label of "full." The sector backdrop fell. It is now a headwind. Risk remains moderate.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it signals a weakening trend in the financial sector.
Confirms:First Hawaiian reports revenue growth below 12% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains at or above 12% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FHB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 24, 2026, First Hawaiian, Inc. (together with its consolidated subsidiary, “First Hawaiian”) reported its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of First Hawaiian’s press release containing this information is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. All information provided in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FHB First Hawaiian, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to provide a consistent dividend payout of $0.26 per share.
Focus on strategies to enhance net income over time.
Improve cash flow generated from operating activities.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:The company announces a dividend of $0.26 per share for the next quarter.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend below $0.26 per share.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is running well. This helps support growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes up by 10% or more from last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operations goes up by less than 10% from last quarter.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth would show First Hawaiian is on track with its growth goals.
Confirms:Q2 net income growth exceeds 5% compared to Q2 last year.
Disproves:Q2 net income growth is 5% or lower compared to Q2 last year.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal challenges for First Hawaiian and its peers.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: More people are filing for unemployment. This could show that the economy is weak. It might affect how well First Hawaiian does.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims stay below 250,000.