Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Foghorn Therapeutics, Inc. (FHTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.10-1.41%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FHTX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined cash burn | Cash burn remains steady near -$25M per quarter. | Improving | cash burn exceeds -$25.3M per quarter | Cash from operations: $-18.903M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: cash burn <= -$25.3M per quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-18,903,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative biotech investment, not a profitable compounder: the company is loss-making and depends on clinical progress. The multi-year view is intact, but execution is mixed after the discontinuation of FHD-909’s expansion phase.
The valuation evidence is mixed and low confidence: FHTX is tagged as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a 42% premium to peers. The expectations gap is slightly negative, and no fragility gates fired, so the evidence does not point to especially fragile expectations.
Near term, the recent results have been neutral overall, with earnings beats in May and August, but FHTX remains loss-making and has high risk. Management cut the workforce by 40%, extending the cash runway into the second half of 2029, while the October decision to stop FHD-909’s expansion phase underscores clinical risk.
Over the multi-year period, the thesis depends on advancing wholly owned programs, including EP300 and CBP degraders, toward planned 2027 clinical filings. Near term, a guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could pressure the business backdrop; continued strength from major Healthcare companies could support sector momentum.
The 1-3 year view remains intact but speculative: the longer runway and pipeline focus are constructive, while losses, clinical setbacks, and a high near-term miss risk remain central concerns. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Foghorn Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is progress score >= 7.1. |
| Intact |
| progress score falls below 7.1 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce operating losses | Operating losses improved from -$26.6M to -$21.6M recently. | Improving | operating loss worsens beyond -$21.6M | Operating income: $-8.805M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating loss >= -$21.6M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-8,805,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.01 → $-0.85 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.01 | $37,422,600 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.10 | $37,419,300 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.01 | $37,422,600 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.01 | $37,422,600 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.01 | $37,422,600 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.10 | $37,419,300 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.10 | $37,419,300 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.10 | $37,419,300 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.01 | $33,947,333 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.10 | $37,419,300 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.10 | $37,419,300 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.10 | $37,419,300 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.01 | $33,947,333 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.10 | $37,419,300 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.99 | $34,889,556 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.07 | $38,999,700 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.07 | $38,999,700 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.07 | $38,999,700 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.99 | $38,999,700 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.98 | $39,637,100 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.99 | $34,889,556 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.99 | $34,889,556 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.99 | $34,889,556 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.99 | $34,889,556 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.99 | $34,889,556 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.99 | $34,889,556 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.99 | $34,889,556 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.94 | $36,407,889 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.94 | $36,407,889 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.94 | $36,407,889 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.94 | $36,407,889 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.94 | $36,407,889 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.94 | $36,407,889 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.94 | $36,407,889 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.94 | $36,407,889 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.94 | $36,407,889 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.98 | $32,767,100 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.94 | $24,839,100 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.93 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.93 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.93 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.93 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.93 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.93 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.93 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.93 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.93 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.93 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.93 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.82 | $10,790,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.85 | $6,433,333 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.85 | $6,433,333 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.85 | $6,433,333 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.85 | $6,433,333 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.85 | $6,433,333 | 7 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.