Figs, Inc. (FIGS)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-11-04

$20.21-7.89%

Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change

Figs, Inc. (FIGS) Outlook: What's Priced In | QuarterlyIQ

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Figs, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.37 → 0.38 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FIGS yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand adjusted EBITDA margin to 13.0% to 13.2% in 2026	Profit margin should expand to about 13%.	Improving	EBITDA margin falls below 11% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Adjusted EBITDA margin (2)(3) was 18.6%, as compared to 12.9% in the same period last year.” “Concurrently, we grew our adjusted EBITDA margin to 18.6%, driven by strong overall expense leverage and ongoing efficiency efforts, and excluding the benefit of IEEPA tariff refunds related to the prior year period.” Operating income was $35.262 million in 2026-Q2.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.38

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Expand adjusted EBITDA margin to 13.0% to 13.2% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve 14% to 16% revenue growth in fiscal 2026Revenue growth: 28.81%
Maintain valuation premium with justified growthPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Figs, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FIGS is a growth business whose multi-year view depends on sustaining revenue growth while improving profitability. The thesis is intact, with recent financial performance holding in the top half of its industry, but risk is elevated and confidence in the valuation model is low.

What's priced into Figs, Inc.

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 4.42-point premium, though its valuation measure recently fell from 32.2 to 20.0. The evidence suggests expectations are demanding, but the priced-in fragility assessment is low because the concern is valuation alone, not a combination of expensive valuation, weak results, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: revenue grew 28.0% year over year in the first quarter of 2026 and 28.8% in the second, while second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin reached 18.6%. Management is on track with its 2026 growth and margin priorities, but a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk; recent earnings surprises have also been erratic despite a low estimated miss risk.

What Figs, Inc. hinges on

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on sustaining growth near management’s 2026 goal and delivering the guided margin expansion. In the near term, a guidance cut could weaken the case, while continued earnings strength from consumer discretionary bellwethers such as RL, LEVI, and VFC could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.

Bottom line

FIGS’s long-term thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent growth and improving margins, but its expensive valuation leaves limited room for execution to falter. The next guidance update and broader consumer discretionary results are key near-term tests. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 5, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.32	$786,590,227	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-07-26	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-07-27	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-07-30	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-07-31	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-01	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-03	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-04	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-05	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-06	$0.32	$786,384,520	9 / 8
2026-08-07	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.34	$798,811,770	8 / 8
2026-08-09	$0.34	$798,811,770	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$0.34	$798,811,770	8 / 8
2026-08-11	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.38	$820,911,770	9 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.32	$786,421,489	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.32	$786,421,489	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.32	$786,421,489	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.32	$786,421,489	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.32	$786,421,489	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.32	$786,421,489	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.39	$829,742,167	7 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.38	$829,742,167	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.38	$829,742,167	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.38	$830,237,861	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$0.37	$831,069,628	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$0.37	$831,065,941	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$0.37	$831,065,941	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$0.37	$831,065,941	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$0.37	$831,065,941	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$0.38	$832,815,941	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$0.38	$832,815,941	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$0.38	$832,815,941	6 / 7
2026-10-25	$0.38	$832,815,941	6 / 7
2026-10-26	$0.38	$832,815,941	6 / 7
2026-10-27	$0.38	$832,815,941	6 / 7
2026-10-28	$0.38	$832,815,941	6 / 7
2026-10-29	$0.38	$832,815,941	6 / 7
2026-10-30	$0.38	$832,816,941	6 / 7
2026-10-31	$0.38	$832,816,941	7 / 7
2026-11-01	$0.38	$832,816,941	7 / 7
2026-11-02	$0.38	$832,816,941	7 / 7
2026-11-03	$0.38	$832,816,941	7 / 7
2026-11-04	$0.38	$832,816,941	7 / 7

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-06-01	5	4
2026-07-01	5	4
2026-08-01	5	4
2026-09-01	5	4
2026-10-01	5	4
2026-11-01	5	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded

What could strengthen or challenge Figs, Inc.’s outlook?

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Next proof point

Historical risk context

Figs, Inc. outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into Figs, Inc.

What the fundamentals likely do

What Figs, Inc. hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Bottom line