Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Financial Institutions, Inc. (FISI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.51-2.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.30 → 4.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FISI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payout at $0.32 per share or higher | pays steady dividends, recently raised to $0.32 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.32 | Dividend per share: $0.32 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.32 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 3, 20260.32 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FISI is a small-cap financial company with a value-oriented profile, but its earnings quality is fragile and recent financial performance is weak. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: loan growth is showing progress, while profitability and credit execution remain mixed.
The evidence describes FISI as cheap on value, yet its valuation is stretched, with a small expectations gap and a premium versus peers close to the peer level. This points to limited room for execution to disappoint, though the evidence does not show high overall fragility in what is priced in.
Near term, the latest earnings miss and a sharp decline in company momentum add pressure after a July earnings beat. Loan growth has continued, including 5.8% year-over-year growth in the third quarter, but expense growth and a higher efficiency ratio show limited progress on cost discipline. Credit signals are mixed: non-performing loans edged lower, while net charge-offs rose.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustaining loan growth while keeping credit quality and expenses under control. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level would be negative risks; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FISI’s loan growth offers support, but the latest miss, fragile earnings quality, and mixed operating trends make execution the central question. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income is stable, rising from $19.98M to $20.99M last quarter. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $20M per quarter |
Net income: $21.184M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $20.99M per quarter. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 3, 202621,184,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth near 5% annually | A supporting condition in Financial Institutions, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 5% annual growth. | Intact | annual revenue growth falls below 0% | Revenue growth: 0.25% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 5% annual growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 20260.252211 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “While loans were down modestly on a linked quarter basis, reflecting higher payoffs and paydowns, we continue to target full year growth of 5%.” “Overall, we remain focused on credit-disciplined loan production in our core Upstate New York markets."” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.20 → $4.33 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.20 | $270,267,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.20 | $270,267,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.20 | $270,267,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.22 | $271,548,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.22 | $271,548,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.22 | $271,548,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.22 | $271,548,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.22 | $271,548,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.22 | $271,548,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.22 | $271,548,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.22 | $271,548,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.22 | $271,548,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.30 | $272,962,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.33 | $273,192,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.33 | $273,192,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.