Reading FIVE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIVE free→Reading FIVE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FIVE free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while management's recent track record has been steady. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly influence the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $198.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $198 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 33× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $137 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $211–$285. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 45% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.11 → $1.31 (+17.5% / 30d). 17 raised, 1 cut, 21 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 11 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
9 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.5% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 9.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$132.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$335.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,471.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show sales and margins. This can affect how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows stronger than expected sales growth and stable margins.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows sales growth is weaker than expected. Margins may also be declining.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FIVE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 3, 2026, Five Below, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its sales and earnings results for the first quarter ended May 2, 2026 (the “Press Release”). A copy of the Press Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and is being furnished, not filed, under
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$211.00 – $285.00 (median $242.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Discretionary (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FIVE Five Below | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | full | moderate |
SN SharkNinja | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
H Hyatt | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to expand its store count by 200 locations in 2026.
The company aims to achieve revenue between $5.4 billion and $5.48 billion in 2026.
The company aims to increase its EPS to between $8.62 and $9.02 in 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target shows the company's growth strategy is working. It is key for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported within the range of $5.4B to $5.48B.
Disproves:Q2 revenue falls below $5.4B.
Why it matters: Retail sales data shows how people shop. It directly impacts Five Below's sales.
Confirms one read:The retail sales report shows growth over 1% from last month.
Confirms the other:The retail sales report shows a drop below 0% from last month.
Why it matters: This EPS range shows strong profits. It can make investors feel more positive.
Confirms:EPS reported within the range of $8.62 to $9.02.
Disproves:EPS reported below $8.62.
Why it matters: Changes in consumer prices can change how people spend. This affects Five Below's sales.
Confirms one read:The CPI report shows inflation is easing. This helps support consumer spending.
Confirms the other:The CPI report shows inflation is rising. This leads to less consumer spending.
Why it matters: Adding stores is crucial for growth. It shows the company is executing its expansion plan.
Confirms:The company opens at least 100 new stores by the end of Q3 2026.
Disproves:Fewer than 100 new stores opened by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it signals a potential shift in the growth phase.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.