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FIZZ
National Beverage Corp.NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$36.94-0.05%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Compared with sector peers, FIZZ trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Beverages - Non-alcoholic
- Market cap
- $3.46B
- Employees
- 1,681
- IPO date
- 1996-09-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-01
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$34.88consensus
Range $31.42 – $35.63
vs price: +6% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$23.30consensus
Range $16.43 – $30.17
vs price: +59% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $37 FIZZ trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 17× p/e peer median. Our $35 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
18.3x
peer 17.4x · own history 23.9x
Premium
1.0x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
6%
our forecast 1%
Our fair value
$34.88
range $31.59 – $35.63
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
61st pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
16th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +3.1% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.62 (+3.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme private-label/value.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -12.0% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$89.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$294.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,361.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceWeeksactive 14d
Watch for changes in consumer sentiment post-CPI report
Why it matters: Consumer sentiment affects spending. A positive shift could boost sales for National Beverage Corp.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:The CPI report shows inflation is going down. This makes people feel better about spending.
Confirms the other:The CPI report shows inflation is going up. This makes people feel worse about spending.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FIZZ yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If FIZZ raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-13), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for FIZZ and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit FIZZ and other Consumer Staples names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If FIZZ cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-03-13), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like KO, PEP, and MNST start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), FIZZ and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.6 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.