Flagstar Bank (FLG)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.60-3.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -35.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FLG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 23, 2026 , Flagstar Bank, National Association (the “Bank”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.
Why it matters: C&I growth is driving loan growth as Flagstar cuts CRE and multi-family loans. A higher pace would support its plan to spread risk across more loan types.
Supportive ifQ4 total loans grow more than 1.5% from Q3, with C&I loans rising and C&I deposits also growing.
Worry ifQ4 C&I loans fall from $20.6 billion, or total loans shrink from $61.9 billion.
Why it matters: Flagstar completed its announced buyback, while its Q3 capital ratio was 12.38%. A steady ratio would show capital held up after the payout.
Watch forThe next reported CET1 ratio stays above 12% after the buyback.
Also watch forThe next reported CET1 ratio falls below 12%.
Why it matters: Q3 credit costs rose as rent rules and higher rates weighed on New York multi-family loans. More credit trouble could erase gains from stronger income.
Worry ifQ4 credit loss provision exceeds $76 million. Or criticized and classified loans rise more than $670 million from Q3.
Less concerning ifQ4 provision falls below $76 million and criticized and classified loans do not rise from Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $235 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,398 loss on $10,000 · 34.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.