Reading FLO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FLO free→Reading FLO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FLO free→NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and trends among sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.79 FLO trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 13× p/e peer median. Our $15 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $8.00–$11. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 48% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.58x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.24 → $0.23 (-6.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 17% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$134.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$375.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,531.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The dividend payment reflects the company's cash flow and financial health. It can affect investor confidence.
Confirms:The company pays the declared dividend of $0.1250 per share on June 26.
Disproves:The company suspends or delays the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FLO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 4, 2026, Thomas C. Chubb, III notified the board of directors (the “Board”) of Flowers Foods, Inc. (the “Company”) of his intention to resign from the Company, effective immediately. Mr. Chubb’s decision to resign was due to competing professional demands as chairman, president and chief executive officer of Oxford Industries, Inc., and was…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$8.00 – $11.00 (median $11.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-04-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q2, 2024-Q3, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FLO Flowers Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management continues to reaffirm its revenue guidance for 2026, focusing on disciplined execution.
Flowers Foods aims to maintain its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026, focusing on cost management.
Flowers Foods has set its capital expenditures for 2026, focusing on strategic investments.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change company strategy. This affects how the company operates and grows.
Confirms one read:The new CEO shares a clear growth plan that matches what investors expect.
Confirms the other:The new CEO's plan causes confusion or worry for investors.
Why it matters: Reaffirming revenue guidance shows the company's confidence in growth. It can impact investor trust.
Confirms:Management says revenue guidance for 2026 is the same in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers the revenue guidance for 2026 in the next earnings call.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 21, 2026, Flowers Foods, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release (the "Press Release") announcing its financial condition and results of operations as of and for the 16 weeks ended April 25, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished with this Report as Exhibit 99.1 .
Other Events. The Press Release also announced that the Company's board of directors reset the dividend to an annual rate of $0.50 per share and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.1250 per share, payable on June 26, 2026, to shareholders of record on June 12, 2026.