Flowserve (FLS)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$76.64-0.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 37.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
FLS — Chief Strategy Officer transition
Dated 2026-08-05
Director — Ajay Agrawal: Ajay Agrawal was elected as a new member of the Board.
Why it matters: Flowserve aims for 860 basis points of margin improvement. Progress signals cost management success.
Supportive ifManagement says margins improved by at least 500 basis points since 2022.
Worry ifMargin improvement stops or goes down, showing bad cost management.
Why it matters: Good integration will help Flowserve in key markets. It will also support growth.
Supportive ifManagement says the integration is going well. They see operational gains from the Trillium deal.
Worry ifThere are problems with integration. These issues cause disruptions in operations.
Why it matters: This shows ongoing problems from global issues. These problems affect overall sales.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth reported worse than -1%.
Less concerning ifOrganic sales growth reported at 0% or better.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal could help Flowserve grow and improve its market position.
Supportive ifThe deal should be done by June 30, 2026.
Worry ifDelay or failure to complete the acquisition by the expected date.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $376 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,983 loss on $10,000 · 29.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in nuclear bookings shows demand trends and supports Flowserve's focus on this area.
Supportive ifNuclear bookings are over $110 million in Q2 2026, showing strong market demand.
Worry ifNuclear bookings are below $100 million. This shows possible weakness in this area.
Why it matters: A drop shows problems with keeping quality and controlling costs.
Worry ifOperating margin was below 13.0% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating margin reported at or above 13.0% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in bookings may show less demand and hurt future revenue.
Worry ifQ2 bookings reported down more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 bookings reported flat or growing year over year.
Why it matters: Backlog growth is a key indicator of future revenue and demand trends.
Watch forBacklog growth rate increases year over year beyond 2.8%.
Also watch forBacklog growth rate decreases year over year.
Why it matters: New debt might affect cash flow and how money is spent, impacting future growth.
Watch forCash flow from operations gets better, even after the recent $500 million debt.
Also watch forCash flow from operations drops a lot after the debt issuance.
Why it matters: Recent acquisitions may increase revenue and profits. It is important to track their effects.
Supportive ifThe earnings report shows that recent acquisitions helped boost results.
Worry ifThe earnings report shows no big changes. There is no negative effect from the acquisitions.
Why it matters: This debt issuance changes Flowserve's financial options and structure. Investors will watch its effect on growth plans.
Watch forThe company completed a $500 million debt issuance. There were no issues reported.
Also watch forAny delays or issues reported in the debt issuance process.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would challenge management's confidence in earnings growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS was below $4.05 for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS reported at or above $4.05 for full-year 2026.
Why it matters: Capital spending affects growth and how well a company operates. It is key to watch.
Watch forFlowserve says capital spending is between $90 million and $100 million.
Also watch forCapex drops below $90 million, showing possible growth limits.
Why it matters: Confirmation of the adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.05 to $4.20 shows strong earnings confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms adjusted EPS guidance remains in the range of $4.05 to $4.20.
Worry ifManagement cuts the adjusted EPS guidance to below $4.05.
Why it matters: Growing margins help with operations and profits. This is important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifOperating margin expands beyond 15.3% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin drops below 15.0% in Q3.