flyExclusive Inc (FLYX)
AMEXIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.15-2.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLYX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 101.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FLYX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 12, 2026, flyExclusive, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a corporate presentation of its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the corporate presentation is being furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein in its entirety by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Excha…
Why it matters: Better operating income shows better cost management. It also shows progress in making money.
Supportive ifOperating income improves year over year. It is moving closer to breakeven.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative or gets worse compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well recent acquisitions and strategies are working.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition could grow the fleet and customer base. This supports long-term growth.
Supportive ifThe Volato Group acquisition is now complete.
Worry ifThere may be a delay or cancellation of the Volato Group acquisition.
Why it matters: More fleet growth shows a commitment to gaining market share and increasing capacity.
Supportive ifWatch for news about getting more aircraft or delivery positions soon.
Worry ifNo news on fleet growth or delays in delivery positions.
Why it matters: Stabilizing cash flow is key for financial health. It also helps with efficiency.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive or improves from -$617K in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations goes down more or stays negative.
Why it matters: Integrating Jet.AI's assets could increase fleet size and customer numbers. This may raise future revenues.
Supportive ifSuccessful integration leads to more flight hours or more activity from Jet.AI's members.
Worry ifIntegration problems mean no increase in flight hours or activity from Jet.AI's members.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost management. This is a step toward making money.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to less negative than -$9.63M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse or stays below -$9.63M.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector gets better, flyExclusive may benefit. This shows a better business climate.
Supportive ifSector performance gets better. This shows good performance compared to peers.
Worry ifSector performance keeps getting worse. This shows poor performance compared to peers.
Why it matters: Sustaining over 20% growth signals strong demand and effective fleet expansion. It would show flyExclusive is capturing market share.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Integrating Jet.AI is important for growing the customer base and fleet. Success can boost revenue and efficiency.
Supportive ifflyExclusive expects more flights from Jet.AI customers in three months after integration.
Worry ifDelays in integration or no rise in flight activity from Jet.AI customers.
Why it matters: A rise in Adjusted EBITDA margin shows better profits and efficiency. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 4% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays below 3% in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$339 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,191 loss on $10,000 · 11.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,451 loss on $10,000 · 84.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.