flyExclusive Inc (FLYX)
AMEXIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.020.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FLYX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -89.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 103.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers
FLYX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 12, 2026, flyExclusive, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a corporate presentation of its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the corporate presentation is being furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein in its entirety by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Excha…
Why it matters: In Q2, flight hours grew 8% with 6% fewer aircraft. This tests whether the fleet can support more flying with fewer planes.
Watch forQ3 flight hours grow year over year while the average aircraft count is below the prior-year level.
Also watch forQ3 flight hours fall year over year, or aircraft count rises while flight hours do not.
Why it matters: MRO revenue grew 52% year over year in Q2, after 14% growth in Q1. A sharp slowdown would weaken this growth line.
Watch forQ3 MRO revenue grows at least 14% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 MRO revenue growth is below 14% year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $4.2 million, after $0.2 million in Q1. Another positive quarter would show this gain lasted beyond one quarter.
Supportive ifOn Nov. 11, Q3 adjusted EBITDA is above $0 and adjusted EBITDA margin is positive.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $0, or its margin turns negative.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$262 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,159 loss on $10,000 · 11.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,686 loss on $10,000 · 86.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.