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FMC
FMC CorporationNYSEMaterialsAgricultural InputsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$11.85+5.15%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is high, compounded by a sector backdrop that is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. The outlook hinges on whether FMC cuts guidance on the next call or if sector bellwethers continue to beat earnings and guide higher. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Materials
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- Market cap
- $1.41B
- Employees
- 5,500
- IPO date
- 1994-03-31
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$11.03consensus
Range $8.97 – $27.62
vs price: +7% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$39.14consensus
Range $39.14 – $39.14
vs price: -70% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $12 FMC trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
22.4x
peer 20.1x · own history 15.9x
Premium
1.1x peer
1.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
4%
our forecast -25%
Our fair value
$11.40
range $10.66 – $34.02
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 4% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -25%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
11th pctl · Materials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.02x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated volatile grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=235).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -53.1% / 30d, n=15for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.46 → $0.21 (-53.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 13 cut, 15 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 24% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
2 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: materials is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.8 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -200.0% avg surprise
as of 2026-06-12
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$273.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$596.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,503.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'low'.
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from "fair" to "full." Risk remained high. Recent financial performance was weak. Earnings quality is loss-making. Management is volatile and capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for the announcement of a share buyback program
Why it matters: A share buyback would signal management's confidence in the company's future. It could also support the stock price.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:A formal announcement of a share buyback program with a set dollar amount.
Disproves:No announcement of a buyback program or a delay in plans.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FMC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth turning positive in Materials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CTVA, CF, and MOS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Materials sector momentum should keep lifting FMC and other Materials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If FMC raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If FMC cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CTVA, CF, and MOS start missing or guiding lower, the Materials tailwind helping FMC and other Materials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits FMC and other Materials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-058d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 5, 2026, FMC Corporation (the “Company”) completed its previously announced private offering (the “Offering”) of $1.2 billion aggregate principal amount of its 8.000% Senior Secured Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). The Notes were sold under a purchase agreement, dated as of May 21, 2026, entered into by and among the Company, the Subsidiary Guarantors (as defined below) party thereto and Citigroup Global Markets Inc., as representative of the s…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-2.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.