Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc/Archbold OH (FMCB)
OTCFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1435.00+0.77%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
OTCFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FMCB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
FMCB — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-12
Other Events On August 12, 2026, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp announced the Board of Directors’ declaration of a quarterly cash dividend, a copy of which is included as Exhibit 99 and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The company has a mixed status on dividends. A new declaration could signal confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifA new quarterly cash dividend is declared by the Board of Directors.
Worry ifNo dividend declaration occurs for the next quarter.
Why it matters: A decline may mean profits are under pressure. This could be from rising costs or competition.
Worry ifNet interest margin drops below 4.10% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains above 4.10% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth may mean it is harder to attract new customers.
Worry ifDeposit growth is less than 5% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDeposit growth exceeds 5% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A steady dividend increase shows strong cash flow and support for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe next dividend is announced at a higher rate than $5.60 per share.
Worry ifThe next dividend is $5.60 or lower. This may mean cash flow problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$70 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $166 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $838 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change the company's direction and affect performance. Investors will want to see if the new leadership brings fresh ideas or stability.
Watch forThe new CEO shares a plan. This plan aims to improve how the company works.
Also watch forThe company has trouble with its plans. It reports negative changes in performance.
Why it matters: Stable credit quality means good risk management. It also shows a healthy loan portfolio.
Worry ifThe allowance for credit losses is about 2.08%. Delinquency rates are low.
Less concerning ifAllowance for credit losses is above 2.08%. This may mean there is risk.
Why it matters: The company wants to keep a strong cash position. This helps with financial stability.
Supportive ifThe company has over $1.8 billion in cash and investments.
Worry ifThe cash position falls below $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is performing amid sector challenges. Strong results could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings show a year-over-year increase in net income.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows a year-over-year decline in net income.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops below its median, it could impact FMCB's performance. This signals broader economic conditions.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median of 15%.
Why it matters: A slowdown in net income growth may show weaker financial performance. This could worry investors.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth is less than 5% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income growth exceeds 5% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: A steady rise in dividends shows strong financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifA quarterly dividend increase is announced. It is above $5.60 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in quarterly dividend from the current $5.60 per share.
Why it matters: The financial sector is in a growth phase. A slowdown could signal broader issues.
Worry ifRevenue growth drops below its median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key for revenue. Slowing growth may signal market challenges.
Worry ifLoans grow by more than 2.2% in Q3 2026 compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifLoan growth is less than 2.2% in Q3 2026, indicating potential market issues.
Why it matters: Stable credit quality is vital for bank health. Rising charge-offs could signal trouble.
Worry ifNet charge-offs remain below $165,000 in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are over $165,000 in Q3 2026. This shows credit quality problems.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if net income growth continues. Investors look for consistent performance.
Watch forNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $24.7 million, showing strong growth.
Also watch forNet income for Q3 2026 is below $24.7 million. This shows weaker performance.