Floor & Decor (FND)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$50.23+1.72%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FND
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
FND — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-25
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. New Senior Secured Term Loan Facility On June 24, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Floor and Decor Outlets of America, Inc. (“F&D”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), refinanced its senior secured term loan credit facility by entering into a new senior secured term loan credit facility, among F&D, the other loan parties thereto, the lender parties thereto, and Goldman Sachs Bank USA, as the administrative agent and…
Why it matters: The earnings report will show important details about sales and profits.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds the guidance range of $1.83 to $2.08.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below the guidance range of $1.83 to $2.08.
Why it matters: Better store sales show that demand is recovering in a tough market. This means more customer engagement and better sales.
Supportive ifComparable store sales improve to less than a -2% decline in Q3.
Worry ifComparable store sales worsen to worse than a -4% decline in Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating adjusted EBITDA goals shows good performance. It also shows strong cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 comes in above $137.5 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls below $130 million.
Why it matters: Higher operating income and margin show better cost control. This means more profit.
Supportive ifOperating income increases by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls or stays flat compared to past quarters.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$220 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $489 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,190 loss on $10,000 · 51.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Starting the $400 million share buyback shows confidence in the company's future.
Supportive ifThe first share buyback will be announced in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in consumer spending can impact Floor & Decor's sales. It reflects overall economic health.
Watch forAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 3% year over year.
Also watch forRetail sales growth falls below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows if the company is maintaining its growth path. A strong result supports management's priority.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes to net sales guidance show how management sees the market and demand.
Watch forManagement raises net sales guidance to more than $4,880 million for fiscal 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers net sales guidance to less than $4,770 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Stabilizing sales would indicate demand is returning, which is key for growth.
Supportive ifStore sales may improve to flat or positive growth in the next quarters.
Worry ifComparable store sales continue to decline beyond -4.0%.
Why it matters: Buying back shares can help the stock price. It shows management believes in the business.
Supportive if$100 million or more in shares repurchased by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifLess than $50 million in shares repurchased by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows problems with costs and profits.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $50 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income stays above $52 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Going above this level would show sales and consumer demand are improving.
Supportive ifNet sales exceed $1.2 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet sales fall below $1.15 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stabilizing or growing revenue signals that the company is overcoming recent challenges. It is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifRevenue for the next quarter exceeds $1.161 billion, showing growth year over year.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline or remains below $1.152 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: News about the share buyback plan shows management cares about giving value to shareholders. This can help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifCompany announces repurchase of at least $100 million of shares in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks are planned for the next quarter.
Why it matters: An increase in operating income means the company is working better and making more money. This matters for long-term success.
Supportive ifOperating income increases year over year by more than 20% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income growth is less than 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Opening new stores is key to growth. Progress toward the goal indicates expansion and market share growth.
Supportive ifCompany opens at least 10 new warehouse stores by the end of 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 10 new warehouse stores opened by the end of 2026.