Reading FNF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FNF free→Reading FNF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FNF free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, FNF trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 15% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $47.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48 FNF trades at 9× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $56 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $50–$71. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 7.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.55 → $1.39 (-9.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 80% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$126.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$241.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,442.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Stable dividends show care for shareholders. This can bring in more investors.
Confirms:Dividend per share stays at $0.52 or increases in Q2.
Disproves:Dividend per share decreases from $0.52 in Q2.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Improve net income
Strong title margins and growth support net income improvement.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026 , Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (the "Company", "FNF") issued an earnings release announcing its financial results for the First Quarter of 2026. A copy of the FNF earnings release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The following information, including the Exhibits referenced in this Item 2.02, is being furnished pursuant to this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$50.00 – $71.00 (median $62.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-12
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FNF Fidelity National Financial | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 12 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operations to support capital allocation strategies.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Focus on enhancing net income through operational efficiencies and strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Growing net income shows good profits. This helps build trust with investors.
Confirms:Net income increases to over $250M in Q2.
Disproves:Net income falls below $243M in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong growth in the Title Segment shows the company's ability to perform in a tough market.
Confirms:Q2 Title Segment revenue grows year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Q2 Title Segment revenue grows year over year by less than 5%.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows that the company is making more money. It also means the company is working better.
Confirms:Q2 earnings per share exceeds $0.90.
Disproves:Q2 earnings per share falls below $0.75.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means better performance. This is important for how money is spent.
Confirms:Cash from operations goes over $1B in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations stays below $875M in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payments show how much cash the company has. They also show how much the company cares about its shareholders.
Confirms one read:The company says it will raise its dividend payments.
Confirms the other:The company announces a cut in dividend payments.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals sector weakness. This could impact FNF's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median in upcoming reports.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Growth in assets under management shows the strength of F&G's business and market position.
Confirms:F&G assets under management increase year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:F&G assets under management increase year over year by less than 5%.
Chief Executive Officer — Michael J. Nolan: Mr. Nolan's employment agreement was amended and restated, providing continued terms as CEO with a retention award.