FIRST NORTHWEST BANCORP (FNWB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.00-0.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FNWB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -25.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers
FNWB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-29
hereof and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and such information shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Updates on the core banking franchise will indicate if the company is maintaining its growth. This is key for future profitability.
Watch forManagement shares better numbers in core banking growth.
Also watch forManagement reports a drop or no change in core banking numbers.
Why it matters: Growth in core banking is vital for long-term success. It shows market competitiveness.
Watch forCore banking franchise shows growth in customer deposits or loans.
Also watch forCore banking franchise shows a decline in customer deposits or loans.
Why it matters: Growth in core banking revenues would show that the franchise momentum is improving. This is key for long-term stability.
Supportive ifCore banking revenues increase compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifCore banking revenues decline or stay flat compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A higher net interest margin means better profits from loans. This matches management's focus on efficiency.
Supportive ifNet interest margin exceeds 3.03% in Q3.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.03% in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin may show trouble managing interest income and costs. This affects profit.
Worry ifNet interest margin is at or above 2.95%. This shows interest income is stable.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin is below 2.95%. This suggests pressure on interest income.
Why it matters: A drop in nonperforming loans shows better credit quality. This matches management's focus on risk.
Supportive ifNonperforming loans fall below $20 million. This shows better credit quality.
Worry ifNonperforming loans stay above $20 million. This shows ongoing credit issues.
Why it matters: A drop in classified loans shows better credit quality and risk management. This matches management's focus.
Supportive ifClassified loans are below $25 million. This shows better credit quality.
Worry ifClassified loans are above $25 million. This shows credit quality issues are still happening.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates. This affects the bank's net interest margin and profits.
Watch forIf the FOMC raises interest rates, it may help the net interest margin.
Also watch forFOMC cuts interest rates, which may compress net interest margin.
Why it matters: Changes in leaders can affect plans and results. Stability is key to making more money again.
Watch forNew executive hires or promotions that match goals for making more money.
Also watch forMore changes in leadership create doubt and instability.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals potential challenges in the financial sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 15%.
Why it matters: Updates on legal issues could affect financial stability. Ongoing legal costs may hurt profits.
Watch forGood updates on legal cases that lower costs or liabilities.
Also watch forBad updates that raise legal costs or liabilities.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps the bank stay stable and grow.
Supportive ifCash from operations was positive and over $885,000.
Worry ifCash from operations was negative or under $885,000.
Why it matters: A big rise in net income shows the company is recovering and growing.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $308,000 from Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 net income remains below $308,000.
Why it matters: Strong deposit growth signals confidence in the bank's core franchise and stability.
Supportive ifCustomer deposits in Q3 increase more than $11.3 million.
Worry ifCustomer deposits in Q3 grow less than $11.3 million.
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows better financial health. It also means more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow in Q3 exceeds $1,492,000 from Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow in Q3 is less than $1,492,000.
Why it matters: A drop in nonperforming loans shows better credit quality. It also means better risk management.
Supportive ifNonperforming loans decrease below $20.7 million in Q3.
Worry ifNonperforming loans rise or stay above $20.7 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $241 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,221 loss on $10,000 · 22.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.