Forrester Research, Inc. (FORR)
NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.65+1.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FORR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
FORR — officer change
Dated 2026-07-30
Director — Neil Bradford: Neil Bradford is retiring as a member of the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Finishing the reduction may help lower costs and improve margins.
Supportive ifHeadcount is below 1,361. This shows progress on the reduction.
Worry ifHeadcount is still above 1,361. This suggests delays in reducing the workforce.
Why it matters: Management thinks revenue will stabilize. This is true even if there are declines.
Watch forTotal revenues for 2026 land within the guided range of $350M to $360M.
Also watch forTotal revenues under $350M show more problems ahead.
Why it matters: A decline worse than expected signals deeper issues in client retention and demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $85.5 million, which is worse than the guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is over $85.5 million. This shows better performance than expected.
Why it matters: Changing revenue guidance shows how well Forrester is doing toward its $350M to $360M goal for 2026.
Watch forQ2 revenue guidance remains within the range of $350M to $360M.
Also watch forQ2 revenue guidance is revised down below $350M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $506 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,495 loss on $10,000 · 54.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This cut is important for managing costs and improving margins.
Supportive ifThe company said it cut 8% of its workers.
Worry ifNo announcement or delay in the workforce reduction plan.
Why it matters: More buybacks may show management's trust in the company's value.
Supportive ifStock buybacks were above $956,000 in Q3.
Worry ifNo increase in stock repurchases, indicating lack of confidence in the stock.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help Forrester's performance. This is important as the sector is maturing.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing the workforce cut can help Forrester lower costs and make more money.
Supportive ifConfirmation that the 8% workforce cut is fully done.
Worry ifNo confirmation of workforce reduction completion by the end of Q2.
Why it matters: Finishing the workforce cuts could help with efficiency and costs.
Supportive ifHeadcount is about 1,280, down 8% by July 31, 2026.
Worry ifHeadcount is still over 1,361, showing delays in cuts.
Why it matters: If revenue stays below $100M, it shows ongoing problems in meeting yearly targets.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported at less than $100M.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue over $100M shows better performance.
Why it matters: Better margins mean improved cost control and efficiency. This is key for recovery.
Supportive ifGAAP operating margin is expected to be between -3.5% and -3.0% soon.
Worry ifOperating margin is still worse than -3.5%. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: A better margin means good cost management. It also shows improvements in operations.
Supportive ifGAAP operating margin reported better than -3.5% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin is still worse than -3.5%. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Higher client retention shows better customer satisfaction. This can help keep revenue stable.
Supportive ifClient retention rate improves above 80% in Q3.
Worry ifClient retention rate drops below 78% in Q3.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show lower demand. This would hurt revenue growth.
Worry ifQ3 contract value down more than 3% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 contract value stable or growing compared to Q3 2025.