Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Fox Corporation (Class A) (FOXA)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$67.67-2.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.88 → 5.85 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FOXA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow remains positive and healthy | Free cash flow yield is healthy at 9%. | Intact | Free cash flow turns negative or declines sharply | Free cash flow: $726M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Positive free cash flow. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026726,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FOXA is a media business with a mixed, execution-sensitive profile rather than a clear durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but recent momentum has weakened sharply and earnings quality is fragile.
The valuation evidence points to FOXA as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative. The model rates the pricing as justified, with low fragility because weak execution quality is not paired with the full set of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Recent financial performance remains in the top half of the industry, supporting the thesis, but company momentum fell from 52.9 to 14.5. Near term, the estimated miss risk is low, though a past deep miss and the industry's high miss rate remain relevant risks.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given the tendency for estimates to be revised down after weak guidance. Fed rate cuts and continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as NFLX, DIS, and WBD could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FOXA's case rests on strong financial performance continuing despite weaker momentum and fragile earnings quality. The thesis remains intact, with guidance and sector conditions as key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins remain stable with a price-to-earnings ratio near 11. |
| Broken |
| Profit margins fall significantly below recent levels |
Operating margin: 28.07% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Maintain stable profit margins. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Nov 2, 202628.068256 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Fox revenue growth at least 6.8% annually | A primary condition in Fox Corporation (Class A)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6.8% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6.8% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful integration and growth from Roku acquisition | The $22B Roku acquisition boosts streaming reach and content distribution. | Improving | Roku acquisition fails to deliver expected strategic benefits | Qualitative: Deal announced, DOJ review ongoing Roku acquisition announced; DOJ requesting documents; Fox upgraded to Overweight. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.79 → $5.85 · observed estimates
$17.96B → $17.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.79 | $17,959,512,172 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.81 | $17,966,668,862 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.79 | $17,475,578,610 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.78 | $17,522,344,140 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.78 | $17,522,344,140 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.81 | $17,966,668,862 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.74 | $17,501,312,860 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.81 | $17,966,668,862 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.81 | $17,966,668,862 | 8 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.81 | $17,966,668,862 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.81 | $17,966,668,862 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.81 | $17,966,668,862 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.81 | $17,966,668,862 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.81 | $17,966,668,862 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.84 | $17,920,495,736 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.84 | $17,920,495,736 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.86 | $17,937,917,958 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.86 | $17,937,917,958 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.86 | $17,937,917,958 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.86 | $17,937,917,958 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.86 | $17,937,917,958 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.86 | $17,937,917,958 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.86 | $17,937,917,958 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.86 | $17,937,917,958 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.86 | $17,937,917,958 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.86 | $17,937,917,958 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.86 | $17,937,917,958 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.85 | $17,946,551,823 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.86 | $17,951,121,166 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.86 | $17,951,121,166 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.86 | $17,951,121,166 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.86 | $17,951,121,166 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.86 | $17,951,121,166 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.86 | $17,951,121,166 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.86 | $17,951,121,166 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.86 | $17,951,121,166 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.87 | $17,954,441,878 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.87 | $17,954,441,878 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.88 | $17,958,722,100 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.88 | $17,971,999,878 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.88 | $17,971,999,878 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.88 | $17,971,999,878 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.88 | $17,971,999,878 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.88 | $17,971,999,878 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.88 | $17,971,999,878 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.88 | $17,971,999,878 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.88 | $17,971,992,389 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.88 | $17,971,992,389 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.88 | $17,971,992,389 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.88 | $17,971,992,389 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.88 | $17,971,992,389 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.87 | $17,971,992,389 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.87 | $17,971,992,389 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.87 | $17,971,992,389 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.83 | $17,566,732,453 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.83 | $17,566,732,453 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.83 | $17,566,732,453 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.83 | $17,566,732,453 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.83 | $17,566,732,453 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.83 | $17,566,732,453 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.83 | $17,566,732,453 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.88 | $17,578,793,599 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.88 | $17,578,793,599 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.85 | $17,570,057,088 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.85 | $17,570,057,088 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.85 | $17,570,057,088 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.85 | $17,570,057,088 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.85 | $17,570,057,088 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.85 | $17,570,057,088 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.85 | $17,570,057,088 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.85 | $17,570,057,088 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.85 | $17,560,994,588 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.85 | $17,560,994,588 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.85 | $17,560,994,588 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.85 | $17,560,994,588 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.85 | $17,560,994,588 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.85 | $17,560,994,588 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.88 | $17,733,456,639 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.85 | $17,777,754,151 | 11 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.