Friedman Industries, Inc. (FRD)
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.60+0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FRD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 48.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
FRD — credit agreement
Dated 2025-12-15
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Credit Facility Amendment On December 9, 2025, the Company entered into a Sixth Amendment (the “ Amendment ”) to that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement by and among the Company, as a borrower, Century Metals & Supplies, LLC, a Texas limited liability company, as a borrower, the lenders party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent. The Amendment amends that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated as of M…
Why it matters: Stable sales volume shows steady operations and demand. It shows good management.
Supportive ifSales volume in Q2 remains comparable to Q1's record levels.
Worry ifSales volume fell a lot from Q1 to Q2. This may mean operational problems.
Why it matters: Higher selling prices can improve margins and profitability. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifAverage selling prices in Q1 fiscal 2027 are higher than in Q4 fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAverage selling prices in Q1 fiscal 2027 go down or stay the same as Q4 fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Higher selling prices can help margins. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifAverage selling prices went up from Q1. This helps improve margins.
Worry ifAverage selling prices dropped or stayed the same from Q1. This shows margin pressure.
Why it matters: Sector revenue growth impacts overall demand for Friedman’s products.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for 1.2 years.
Also watch forSector revenue growth is still negative. This means the sector is still shrinking.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$199 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $442 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,477 loss on $10,000 · 24.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher sales margins show good pricing. This leads to more money made.
Supportive ifOperating earnings go up. This shows that sales margins are getting better.
Worry ifOperating earnings stay the same or drop. This suggests pricing strategies are not working.
Why it matters: Stable sales show strong demand and good management. This helps ongoing growth.
Supportive ifSales volumes in Q1 fiscal 2027 are about the same as Q4 fiscal 2026.
Worry ifSales volumes in Q1 fiscal 2027 fall a lot compared to Q4 fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Better sales margins show stronger pricing and cost control. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifSales margins improve quarter over quarter in Q4.
Worry ifSales margins decline or stay flat in Q4.
Why it matters: The Century Metals purchase is likely to raise sales and profits. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifSales growth from Century Metals is over 20% of total sales growth.
Worry ifSales volume growth from Century Metals is less than 20% of total volume growth.
Why it matters: A rise in EBITDA shows better efficiency and profits. This supports good growth trends.
Supportive ifEBITDA for Q1 fiscal 2027 is reported to be higher than the previous year's Q1 EBITDA.
Worry ifEBITDA for Q1 fiscal 2027 is reported to be lower than the previous year's Q1 EBITDA.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show management's confidence in cash flow. It affects returns for shareholders.
Watch forDividends remain at $0.04 per share, indicating stable cash flow.
Also watch forDividends are cut or stopped. This may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Maintaining record sales volume shows strong demand and effective operations. It supports growth.
Supportive ifSales volume in Q2 stays at or above about 206,000 tons.
Worry ifSales volume falls below about 200,000 tons.
Why it matters: Higher selling prices can improve sales margins, leading to better profits. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifAverage selling prices in Q2 increase above $1,262 per ton.
Worry ifAverage selling prices fall below $1,200 per ton.
Why it matters: EBITDA growth shows strong performance and profit. It means good cost management.
Supportive ifEBITDA in Q2 exceeds $19.3 million.
Worry ifEBITDA falls below $15 million.
Why it matters: Consistent dividends show good financial health. They build trust with investors.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.04 in Q3.
Worry ifDividend per share drops below $0.04 in Q3.