Friedman Industries, Inc. (FRD)
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.79-5.51%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FRD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 48.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
FRD — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-10
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Credit Facility Amendment On September 3, 2026, the Company entered into a Seventh Amendment (the “ Amendment ”) to that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement by and among the Company, as a borrower, Century Metals & Supplies, LLC, a Texas limited liability company, as a borrower, the lenders party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent. The Amendment amends that certain Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated as o…
Why it matters: The company amended its credit agreement in September. The filing's terms may show changes to borrowing limits or lender rules.
Watch forThe amendment keeps or expands access to loans, with no tighter limits or new rules.
Also watch forThe amendment cuts access to loans or adds tighter limits, fees, or lender rules.
Why it matters: Most of the latest yearly volume gain came from sites Friedman ran before the Century deal. Continued gains would show growth beyond the purchase.
Supportive ifA later earnings report says same-site volume rose year over year and supplies the tonnage increase.
Worry ifA later report says same-site volume fell year over year. Only Century drove total growth.
Why it matters: Management tied better margins to higher selling prices. The result will test whether price gains lift earnings.
Supportive ifThe next report shows higher flat-roll earnings per ton than in the first quarter, with average selling prices rising.
Worry ifFlat-roll earnings per ton fall from the first quarter, or average selling prices decline.
Why it matters: The dividend has stayed at $0.04 per share each quarter through the reported period. A cut would break that record.
Worry ifThe next declared quarterly dividend remains $0.04 per share or higher.
Less concerning ifThe next declared quarterly dividend is below $0.04 per share, or the company stops paying it.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $431 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,465 loss on $10,000 · 24.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.