First Seacoast Bancorp Inc (FSEA)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$17.180.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSEA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
FSEA — divestiture
Dated 2026-05-05
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 4, 2026, First Seacoast Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”), the holding company of First Seacoast Bank, and Cambridge Financial Group, Inc. (“Cambridge Financial”), the mutual holding company of Cambridge Savings Bank, entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) pursuant to which the Company will merge with Cambridge Financial, with Cambridge Financial as the surviving corporation (the “Merger”). Simultaneously with or im…
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact First Seacoast's performance. It signals a broader slowdown.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the last three months.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for the last three months.
Why it matters: Better operating income is key for financial health and growth. It shows good management.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 2026 shows a positive trend. It is getting closer to break-even.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse or stays negative. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: The merger could change the company's growth outlook and market position. Investors will want to see if it progresses smoothly.
Supportive ifA press release confirming the merger is on track and key milestones are met.
Worry ifDelays or issues reported in the merger process that could jeopardize the deal.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for financial stability. It shows how well the bank runs.
Supportive ifOperating income will be positive next quarter. It will go above $0.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative or gets worse in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$12 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $282 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,154 loss on $10,000 · 21.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stopping the revenue drop is key for future growth and profit. It shows market need.
Supportive ifRevenue for Q2 2026 increases compared to $6,467,000 in Q1 2026.
Worry ifRevenue keeps falling, showing a worse trend than in previous quarters.
Why it matters: Stockholder approval is essential for the merger to proceed. Lack of support could halt the deal.
Supportive ifStockholders vote for the merger agreement at the next meeting.
Worry ifStockholders vote no on the merger agreement.
Why it matters: Stockholder approval is needed for the merger to move forward. It shows investor trust.
Supportive ifA majority of stockholders vote in favor of the merger before the closing date.
Worry ifStockholders vote against the merger, preventing it from moving forward.
Why it matters: Regulatory approval is crucial for the merger to proceed. Delays could impact growth plans.
Supportive ifApproval comes before the expected closing in Q3 2026.
Worry ifApproval is delayed or denied. This affects the merger timeline.