Federal Signal Corporation (FSS)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$119.28+1.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FSS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
FSS — CEO transition
Dated 2026-02-26
Director — Richard A. Maue and Eric A. Vaillancourt: The Board of Directors increased its size from seven to nine directors and appointed Richard A. Maue and Eric A. Vaillancourt.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Federal Signal is doing and its place in the market.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) exceeds analysts' expectations by more than 5%.
Also watch forEPS falls short of analysts' expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Federal Signal and its peers.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector increases back toward 8% or higher.
Worry if3-year revenue growth remains at or below 6%.
Why it matters: Merging Mega Corporation and New Way Trucks can boost growth and market share.
Supportive ifManagement says they have achieved their goals for Mega Corporation and New Way Trucks.
Worry ifThere are problems or delays in integration, which hurt performance.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic weakness. This could hurt Federal Signal's sales.
Worry ifUnemployment claims rise a lot compared to last week.
Less concerning ifUnemployment claims drop or stay the same, showing a strong job market.
Why it matters: Backlog levels show future revenue potential. A higher backlog means strong demand.
Supportive ifBacklog increases by more than 10% from Q1 to Q2 2026.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or remains flat from Q1 to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Getting 100% cash conversion shows strong financial health. It backs management's money use plan.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 reports cash from operating activities at least equal to net income.
Worry ifCash conversion under 90% may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A return to higher revenue growth would signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 8% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 8% year over year.
Why it matters: News about the aftermarket ecosystem can show growth in steady income. It also helps keep customers.
Supportive ifLook for new partnerships or products in the aftermarket segment.
Worry ifNo updates or progress in the aftermarket segment.
Why it matters: Management's M&A strategy is key for growth. New acquisitions could boost revenue and market position.
Supportive ifA new acquisition was announced. It fits Federal Signal's growth plan.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions were announced this quarter. This shows a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Updates on M&A can signal growth potential. Successful acquisitions can boost revenue.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new acquisition that fits the growth strategy.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions have been announced. There are delays in integrating recent ones.
Why it matters: Management wants to convert 100% of cash. This shows they are efficient.
Supportive ifCash conversion will be 100% or more in the next financial reports.
Worry ifCash conversion is below 80%. This shows there are operational challenges.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good efficiency and financial health. It shows management cares about cash.
Supportive ifAnnual cash conversion reaches or exceeds 100% in the next reporting period.
Worry ifCash conversion is below 85%. This shows there are operational problems.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can help growth and market position. They support the careful M&A strategy.
Supportive ifAnother acquisition is announced. It targets a niche market leader in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions are announced next quarter. This suggests a slowdown in growth plans.
Why it matters: Strong growth in aftermarket sales shows expansion efforts are working. It shows customer loyalty and demand.
Supportive ifAftermarket sales grow by more than 10% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifAftermarket sales growth is flat or down. This shows expansion efforts are not working.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it shows a healthier industrial sector. This can help Federal Signal's sales.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to 6% or higher in the next quarter.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 4%. This shows ongoing challenges.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $331 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,904 loss on $10,000 · 19.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.