FTC Solar Inc (FTCI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.38-4.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FTCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -90.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 63.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 153.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FTCI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-11-04
is being furnished, shall not be deemed “filed” for any purpose, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. This Current Report on Form 8-K does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdicti…
Why it matters: Lenders will start testing a $15 million cash balance in January 2027. Missing that level would add pressure after the repayment delay.
Worry ifThe company reports cash of at least $15 million when the lender test starts on January 4, 2027.
Less concerning ifThe company reports cash below $15 million at the January 4, 2027 test, or reports a new lender waiver.
Why it matters: Only the first of three project tranches was contracted. Signing the next tranche would turn more of the award into firm business.
Supportive ifFTC Solar announces a signed contract for the second tranche of the 1GW award.
Worry ifFTC Solar reports that the second tranche remains unsigned, is delayed, or is canceled.
Why it matters: FTC Solar guided to $30 million to $35 million in Q3 revenue. Meeting that range would support its 40% growth goal for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is at least $30 million, the low end of the August guidance range.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $30 million, the low end of the August guidance range.
Why it matters: The company reported pilot results but gave no real-world results yet. A live project would show whether the tools work on site.
Supportive ifFTC Solar names a commercial project that uses its robotics. It shares measured results from the project.
Worry ifFTC Solar reports that commercial use has not begun, or reports no project results by its next earnings update.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$335 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,079 loss on $10,000 · 10.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,960 loss on $10,000 · 89.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: FTC Solar still lost money on each dollar of sales in Q2. A non-negative gross margin would mark progress toward covering costs.
Supportive ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is at least 0%, within or above the guided range of -3.0% to 5.1%.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP gross margin is below -3.0%, worse than the low end of guidance.