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FTDR
Frontdoor, Inc.NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryPersonal ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$68.83+1.94%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some variability in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If FTDR cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Personal Services
- Market cap
- $4.74B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2018-11-06
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $68.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$67.05consensus
Range $60.60 – $75.95
vs price: +3% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$96.17consensus
Range $94.35 – $120.91
vs price: -28% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $69 FTDR trades at 17× p/e, in line with its 16× p/e peer median. Our $67 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
16.5x
peer 15.8x · own history 16.1x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
3%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$67.05
range $61.35 – $75.63
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
39th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
48th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish5 analysts, 57% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.77 → $1.76 (-0.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme e-commerce.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$166.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$305.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,923.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from fair to full. This indicates a shift in how the stock is valued relative to its peers. The overall risk remains moderate, while the sector backdrop is noted as a headwind. The inputs suggest that the financial outlook is provisional, with potential changes in guidance and sector trends that could impact future performance.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth results on August 4
Why it matters: This will show if Frontdoor is on track to increase revenue growth. A strong result could boost investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 0% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FTDR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SCI, HRB, and ANDG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting FTDR and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If FTDR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If FTDR cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SCI, HRB, and ANDG start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping FTDR and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits FTDR and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the text of the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific re…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.