FitLife Brands, Inc. (FTLF)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.18+3.68%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FTLF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -26.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
FTLF — earnings miss
Dated 2025-11-13
and 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “ filed ” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by referenced.
Why it matters: Irwin has lower gross margins than Legacy FitLife. A higher company margin would show that the mix and Irwin's costs are improving.
Supportive ifCompany gross margin rises above 37.0% in Q3, and Irwin gross margin rises above 32.8%.
Worry ifCompany gross margin falls below 37.0%, or Irwin gross margin falls below 32.8%.
Why it matters: Irwin revenue rose to $14.1 million in Q2, led by online sales. Another increase would show this growth is continuing.
Supportive ifQ3 Irwin revenue exceeds $14.1 million, with online revenue above $3.44 million.
Worry ifQ3 Irwin revenue falls below $12.8 million, or online revenue falls below $2.55 million.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA rose 10% year over year in Q2. Another rise would support progress toward management's $20–25 million goal for the first full year.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is above $3.7 million. The company remains on pace to reach $20 million or more in its first full year.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $3.3 million, the Q1 2026 level.
Why it matters: Legacy FitLife revenue fell 23% in Q2. Further declines would add to pressure from weak sales at GNC and MRC.
Worry ifLegacy FitLife Q3 revenue is below $12.4 million, or down more than 23% year over year.
Less concerning ifLegacy FitLife Q3 revenue tops $12.4 million, or its year-over-year drop is smaller than 23%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $489 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,050 loss on $10,000 · 60.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: FitLife has been using cash to pay down debt. A lower net debt balance would show this plan is continuing.
Supportive ifNet debt is below $37.0 million at the end of Q3.
Worry ifNet debt is above $40.6 million at the end of Q3, the Q1 2026 level.