FitLife Brands, Inc. (FTLF)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.82+0.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FTLF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -26.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FTLF — earnings miss
Dated 2025-11-13
and 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “ filed ” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and will not be incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein by referenced.
Why it matters: Going beyond this target shows strong growth and good integration of Irwin.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reported above $120 million for the full year 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue falls below $120 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: New products can drive sales and help Irwin recover from recent declines.
Supportive ifIrwin launches at least three new products in Q3 2026 as planned.
Worry ifIrwin fails to launch any new products in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Achieving adjusted EBITDA of $20-25 million is key for growth. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA was between $20 million and $25 million.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA was less than $20 million.
Why it matters: Cutting debt can improve financial stability. It can also increase investor trust.
Supportive ifDebt balance decreases by at least $2 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifDebt balance increases or remains unchanged in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Exceeding $120 million in annual revenue shows strong growth. It builds investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue was above $30 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $30 million.
Why it matters: Strong growth on Amazon can boost overall revenue and improve margins for Irwin.
Supportive ifIrwin's Amazon revenue reaches an annual run rate of $12 million or more.
Worry ifIrwin's Amazon revenue growth stalls or declines from the current run rate.
Why it matters: A decline greater than 20% would signal ongoing weakness in the brand's performance. This could affect overall growth targets.
Worry ifLegacy FitLife revenue declines more than 20% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifLegacy FitLife revenue declines less than 20% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If Irwin grows online, it shows they are doing well after the purchase.
Supportive ifIrwin's online revenue growth exceeds 30% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifIrwin's online revenue growth is below 30% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching this EBITDA target would show progress towards the annual goal of $20-25 million.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA hits $5 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $5 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Going beyond this revenue level shows strong growth. It helps reach the $120 million yearly goal.
Supportive ifTotal revenue exceeds $28 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue remains below $28 million in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$219 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $501 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,723 loss on $10,000 · 57.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.