H.B. Fuller Company (FUL)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$53.89+0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FUL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers
FUL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-07-20
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 17, 2026, H.B. Fuller Company, a Minnesota corporation (the “Company”), entered into an Amendment No. 3 (the “Amendment”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. as administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”), the various lenders party thereto and certain of the Company’s subsidiaries, which amends the Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated as of February 15, 2023, as previously amended, among the Company, the lenders from time to t…
Why it matters: Stable or growing organic revenue means good pricing and cost control.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth is low-single digits or better in Q3.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth reported at negative or flat in Q3.
Why it matters: A better ratio shows stronger finances and more room for growth.
Supportive ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA is less than 3.0x.
Worry ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA is more than 3.5x.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it may signal a shift from the mature phase to growth. This could benefit H.B. Fuller.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the materials sector rises above 2%.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth in the materials sector stays below 1%.
Why it matters: Meeting the adjusted EBITDA guidance shows good cost management. It also shows growth execution.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026 is reported within the range of $650 million to $675 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below the lower end of the guidance range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $368 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,697 loss on $10,000 · 27.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Closing the AMS deal will expand H.B. Fuller's medical segment and increase revenue potential.
Supportive ifThe company finished buying AMS. They announced this before December 31, 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed beyond year-end or fails to close.
Why it matters: Results from the pricing initiative will show if the company can manage costs and improve margins. This is crucial for profitability.
Watch forThe pricing initiative works well. It leads to better gross margins in Q2 2026.
Also watch forThe pricing initiative fails to improve gross margins in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A margin over 20% shows good cost and portfolio management. This helps long-term profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin goes over 20% in Q2 2026. This shows successful margin growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays below 20% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Approval is key for H.B. Fuller to expand its medical segment and reach growth targets.
Supportive ifAMS shareholders approve the acquisition deal before the end of 2026.
Worry ifAMS shareholders might not accept the acquisition. Delays could also happen.
Why it matters: Exceeding guidance shows strong performance. It also means better profit margins.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was more than $190 million.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was less than $180 million.
Why it matters: Stable growth shows demand is recovering and pricing is working.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth reported above 2% for Q3.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth reported below 1% for Q3.