First US Bancshares Inc (FUSB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.48-0.42%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FUSB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 220 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FUSB — CEO transition
Dated 2026-02-12
The filing describes the establishment of a new cash incentive program for executive officers and key employees.
Why it matters: The opening of this center is key for growth. It shows the bank's commitment to expanding its footprint.
Supportive ifThe new banking center in Daphne opens as planned in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe opening of the Daphne banking center is delayed past Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy may show shifts in how money is used or the company's health.
Watch forManagement says the quarterly dividend will go up from $0.07.
Also watch forManagement says the quarterly dividend will be cut or stopped.
Why it matters: More non-interest income can increase profits. It also reduces the need for interest income.
Supportive ifNon-interest income goes up by more than 10% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifNon-interest income increases by less than 10% or declines in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A decline in revenue growth could signal a weakening trend in the financial sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 15% for the quarter.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above 15%, showing stability.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$62 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $278 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,234 loss on $10,000 · 12.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Steady dividends show a strong financial position and care for shareholders. Changes may mean problems.
Watch forDividend remains at $0.07 per share in Q3 2026.
Also watch forDividend is cut or changed in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Provision for credit losses affects net income. A rise may show worse credit quality. A drop could mean better asset quality.
Watch forProvision for credit losses is less than $0.5 million in Q3 2026.
Also watch forProvision for credit losses exceeds $1 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key for earnings. A strong increase shows demand and solid management.
Supportive ifTotal loans increase by more than $16.9 million compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal loans decrease or grow less than $16.9 million compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Core deposits help with funding. Growth shows strong customer loyalty and market strength.
Supportive ifCore deposits increase to more than $835.2 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCore deposits fall below $835.2 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More charge-offs mean higher credit risk. This can hurt earnings and investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 0.30% of average loans in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below 0.30% of average loans in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects profit. A rise shows good cost control and loan pricing.
Watch forNet interest margin increases above 3.56% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forNet interest margin decreases below 3.56% in Q3 2026.