Reading FWRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FWRD free→Reading FWRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FWRD free→NASDAQIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
FWRD shows a mixed quality-and-value setup, with recent financial performance being neutral and management's track record stable. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it faces high risk in a sector backdrop that is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 66% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $13 FWRD trades at 0× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $38 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $17–$42. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 65% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.73x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.14 → $-0.15 (-12.3% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$258.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$574.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,425.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Having positive net income is key for making money long-term. It builds investor trust.
Confirms:Net income turns positive in Q2.
Disproves:Net income remains negative or improves less than 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FWRD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Forward Air Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. On May 7, 2026, the Company also posted an e arnings presentation on the Company’s Investor Relations website at ir.forwardaircorp.com. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Sec…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$17.00 – $42.00 (median $18.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-08
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Air Freight & Logistics.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FWRD Forward Air Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 20 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
UPS United Parcel Service | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
FDX FedEx | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CHRW C.H. Robinson | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | moderate |
EXPD Expeditors International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Enhance cash flow from operations to support business activities and investments.
Strive to achieve positive net income through revenue growth and cost control.
Why it matters: Changes in sector performance can impact Forward Air's growth and market position.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now above 8%.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth continues to slow below 5%.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for the company's financial health and growth plans.
Confirms:Cash from operations increases by more than 10% compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Cash from operations decreases or remains flat compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is improving its income and cash flow.
Confirms:Q2 2026 showed positive net income. This means the company is making more money.
Disproves:Q2 2026 reported negative net income. This shows the company is still struggling financially.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change the company strategy. This may affect how well the company does.
Confirms one read:The new CEO shares a clear plan. This plan improves how the company operates.
Confirms the other:No clear plan is seen, and the company's performance gets worse.
Why it matters: Better operating income matters. It helps with profits and stability in the long run.
Confirms:Operating income shows a year-over-year increase of more than 5% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating income is flat or down compared to last year in Q2 2026.
Director — Charles L. Anderson, Robert L. Edwards, Jr.: Directors are not standing for re-election at the annual meeting.