First National Corp/VA (FXNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.52+1.71%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FXNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FXNC — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-13
Other Events. On August 12, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per common share, which is p ayable on September 11, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 28, 2026.
Why it matters: Low problem assets support the bank's strong recent results. Q3 net charge-offs rose to $594,000 from $105,000 in Q2.
Worry ifNon-performing assets rise above 0.32% of loans, or net charge-offs top $594,000 for the quarter.
Less concerning ifNon-performing assets stay at or below 0.32% of loans and net charge-offs fall below $594,000.
Why it matters: Q3 margin rose to 4.38%, but loan payoffs added 18 basis points. A steady margin would show the gain was not just a one-time boost.
Worry ifQ4 tax-equivalent net interest margin falls below 4.20% as loan payoff gains fade.
Less concerning ifQ4 tax-equivalent net interest margin stays at or above 4.38% after loan payoff gains fade.
Why it matters: Loan growth tests whether new bankers and relationship banking keep bringing in business. Q3 net loans rose $13.6 million.
Supportive ifQ4 net loans rise from the September 30 balance of $1.486 billion, with positive new loan production.
Worry ifQ4 net loans fall below the September 30 balance of $1.486 billion.
Why it matters: The North Carolina office sale and branch cuts aim to lift future profit. Q3 expense rose to $16.7 million from $16.4 million.
Supportive ifFXNC reports the North Carolina sale gain in Q4. Later, quarterly expenses fall below $16.7 million.
Worry ifFXNC reports no Q4 gain, or quarterly expenses stay at or above $16.7 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $246 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,041 loss on $10,000 · 10.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.