First National Corp/VA (FXNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.60+2.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FXNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FXNC — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-13
Other Events. On August 12, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per common share, which is p ayable on September 11, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 28, 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in loan growth could indicate weakening demand and affect overall earnings. This is critical for growth.
Worry ifNet loan growth is below 3% each year. This suggests less demand for loans.
Less concerning ifNet loan growth is above 3% each year. This shows strong demand and helps earnings.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $234 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,041 loss on $10,000 · 10.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Why it matters: Regular dividend payments show good money use and financial health. Changes could affect investor trust.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.17 per share. This keeps the same payout level.
Worry ifThe dividend is cut or lowered. This shows possible financial problems.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This may impact First National Corp's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% over the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 15%.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key to earnings. If growth slows, it may signal challenges ahead.
Worry ifLoan growth in Q2 is over 4% annualized. This shows strong demand and good management.
Less concerning ifLoan growth in Q2 is under 4% annualized. This points to weaker demand and possible problems.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is controlling costs and growing profits. This boosts investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income is over $6.068M. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifOperating income is below $6.068M. This may show problems with cost management.
Why it matters: A strong net interest margin helps earnings grow. It shows good management of interest income and costs.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest margin was above 4.0%.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin falls below 4.0%.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payments can show shifts in how money is used and the company's health.
Watch forThe company declares a dividend increase beyond $0.17 per share.
Also watch forThe company cuts the dividend below $0.17 per share.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is a key management priority. A strong EPS would indicate continued success in their growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted earnings per share reported above $0.64.
Worry ifQ3 diluted earnings per share falls below $0.64.
Why it matters: Better asset quality can make earnings more stable. It shows good risk management.
Supportive ifNon-performing assets as a percentage of total loans decline below 0.30% in Q2.
Worry ifNon-performing assets rise above 0.30% in Q2. This means credit risk is increasing.
Why it matters: Closing these sales is part of First National's plan to improve branches. It could help them make more money.
Supportive ifThe sale of North Carolina branches will close as planned in October 2026.
Worry ifThe branch sales face delays or regulatory issues that push back the closing date.
Why it matters: Continued loan growth supports First National's earnings and growth strategy. It shows strong demand.
Supportive ifQ3 net loan growth exceeds $22.7 million, indicating strong performance.
Worry ifNet loan growth falls below $15 million, suggesting weakening demand.
Why it matters: More non-performing assets could mean worse asset quality. This would hurt overall financial health.
Worry ifNon-performing assets are below 0.32% of total loans. This shows strong asset quality.
Less concerning ifIf non-performing assets rise above 0.32%, it may show problems with loan performance.