Reading GCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GCO free→Reading GCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GCO free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and risk is elevated, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, GCO is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like TJX, ROST, and BURL. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $42.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $42 GCO trades at 35× p/e — 2.3× the 16× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $33 fair value is low-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 30% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 7.32x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.17 → $-1.37 (-17.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$233.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$487.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,877.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 29.1 points (from 97.2 to 68.1).
Management rose by 8.1 points (from 44.5 to 52.6).
Company momentum fell. Management rose. Risk remains elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GCO Genesco, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | elevated |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.