Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GoDaddy (GDDY)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$120.12+1.52%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.19 → 9.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GDDY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow near $1.8 billion in 2026 | Free cash flow is strong, expected near $1.8 billion. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $1.6 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $475.8M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.8 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 2026475,800,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented business with an emerging AI product opportunity, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis remains intact, but the latest miss, fragile earnings quality, and elevated risk make the current setup mixed.
The evidence describes GDDY as cheap versus peers, with a valuation model that has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment says current fragility is justified rather than unusually concentrated; the market’s exact assumptions are not provided.
Near term, the October earnings miss and sharp deterioration in company momentum raise execution concerns, despite the low estimated miss risk. Over the multi-year view, revenue grew 6% year over year in the latest quarter, Airo’s annualized bookings run rate more than doubled, and NEBITDA margin was above the stated threshold, though revenue growth delivery is mixed.
The thesis hinges on whether revenue growth and margins remain steady while Airo turns its bookings progress into sustained growth. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or stabilization among large technology peers could provide a more supportive backdrop, but neither outcome is established.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GDDY has evidence of product and financial progress, but the latest miss has made execution quality the key concern. The long-term thesis remains intact, with elevated risk and a low-confidence valuation assessment. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in GoDaddy's published investment case. The stated target is No further guidance cuts or major negative revisions. |
| Under Pressure |
| guidance is cut again or materially lowered |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
NEBITDA margin over 33% in 2026 | Profit margins are improving, targeting over 33% NEBITDA margin. | Intact | NEBITDA margin falls below 31% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $5.24 billion in 2026 | GoDaddy grows revenue about 6% yearly, aiming for $5.24 billion in 2026. | Intact | revenue falls below $5.0 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.342B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.24 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20261,341,800,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.98 → $9.25 · observed estimates
$5.55B → $5.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.98 | $5,548,503,741 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.97 | $5,547,847,890 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.97 | $5,547,847,890 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.97 | $5,547,841,464 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.97 | $5,547,847,890 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.97 | $5,547,839,130 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.97 | $5,547,839,130 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.02 | $5,545,254,065 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.02 | $5,545,254,065 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.98 | $5,533,070,830 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.94 | $5,520,809,460 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.24 | $5,517,544,760 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.24 | $5,517,544,760 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.24 | $5,517,544,760 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.27 | $5,533,263,597 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.24 | $5,517,558,051 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.24 | $5,517,558,051 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.24 | $5,517,558,051 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.24 | $5,517,558,051 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.24 | $5,517,558,051 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.24 | $5,517,558,051 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.24 | $5,517,558,051 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.24 | $5,517,558,051 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.24 | $5,517,558,051 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.19 | $5,513,040,404 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.19 | $5,513,040,404 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.19 | $5,513,040,404 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.19 | $5,513,040,404 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.19 | $5,513,040,404 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.19 | $5,513,040,404 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.19 | $5,513,040,404 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.19 | $5,513,040,404 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.19 | $5,513,040,404 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.19 | $5,513,048,922 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.19 | $5,513,048,922 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.19 | $5,513,048,922 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.19 | $5,513,048,922 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.19 | $5,513,048,922 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.19 | $5,513,048,922 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.19 | $5,513,048,922 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.19 | $5,513,048,922 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.19 | $5,513,048,922 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.19 | $5,513,048,922 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.19 | $5,513,031,275 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.19 | $5,513,031,275 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.19 | $5,513,031,275 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.19 | $5,513,031,275 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.19 | $5,513,031,275 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.19 | $5,513,048,922 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.19 | $5,513,047,446 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.19 | $5,513,047,446 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.19 | $5,513,068,087 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.18 | $5,511,144,557 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.18 | $5,511,144,557 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.18 | $5,511,144,557 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.18 | $5,511,144,557 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.18 | $5,511,144,557 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.18 | $5,511,144,557 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.18 | $5,510,910,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.12 | $5,510,910,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.12 | $5,510,910,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.12 | $5,510,910,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.12 | $5,510,910,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.12 | $5,510,910,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.12 | $5,510,910,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.12 | $5,510,910,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.12 | $5,510,910,981 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.12 | $5,510,893,334 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.12 | $5,510,893,334 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.03 | $5,509,658,040 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.28 | $5,520,539,451 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.28 | $5,520,539,451 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.26 | $5,520,730,157 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.23 | $5,523,415,398 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.25 | $5,524,304,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-05 | $9.25 | $5,524,304,725 | 12 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.