Gemini Space Station Inc (GEMI)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.68-3.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEMI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GEMI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 13, 2026, Gemini Space Station, Inc. (“Gemini,” the “Company,” “we,” or “us”) issued a press release (the “Q2 2026 Earnings Release”) announcing its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Q2 2026 Earnings Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Gemini's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above the median, showing continued strength.
Why it matters: The fraud event has led to higher credit losses. Monitoring this will show how well Gemini manages risk.
Worry ifCredit losses remain below $10 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCredit losses exceed $20 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will provide $100 million in funding. This is crucial for Gemini's operations.
Supportive ifThe transaction closes with Bitcoin payment confirmed on the blockchain within the next two weeks.
Worry ifThe transaction does not close due to failure in Bitcoin transfer confirmation.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the business environment.
Worry ifGemini's revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$367 on $10,000 · ±3.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $897 loss on $10,000 · 9.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,099 loss on $10,000 · 31.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cutting costs is important for Gemini. It helps the company’s money situation.
Supportive ifManagement says operating costs will drop by at least 10% next quarter.
Worry ifOperating costs may stay the same or go up next quarter.
Why it matters: Gemini is growing its services revenue. This shows it can do more than crypto trading. This can help its financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 services revenue growth exceeds 100% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 services revenue growth falls below 50% year over year.
Why it matters: If operating expenses go up, it may mean cost-cutting is not working. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating costs go up more than 5% in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses fall or stay the same in Q3.