Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Gemini Space Station Inc (GEMI)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.39-14.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GEMI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Focus business operations on US and Singapore markets | It aims to focus on the US and Singapore. | Intact | Operations outside US and Singapore expand or persist | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a loss-making growth business with exposure to crypto trading and a developing mix of service revenue. Its multi-year view is on watch: management has made progress on costs, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort.
GEMI is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting current expectations may already be demanding. The valuation evidence has medium confidence, and the snapshot does not provide enough detail to quantify what the market assumes.
Near term, cost reductions and growth in service revenue provide evidence of progress: operating expenses fell sequentially, and service revenue rose year over year. But the latest earnings event was a miss, and the chance of another miss is flagged for watching; the multi-year case depends on cost control and revenue diversification continuing.
A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued expense reductions and growth beyond crypto trading would support the business case. Near term, the sector backdrop also matters: continued strength at major financial firms could help sector momentum, while rate cuts could weigh on financial stocks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GEMI’s thesis depends on turning service growth and lower costs into stronger financial performance; elevated risk and recent weakness remain important concerns. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating profit is guided around $525 million in 2025. |
| Broken |
| Operating margin falls below $520 million in FY25 |
Operating margin: -169.19% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating margin >= $520 million in FY25. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026-169.194063 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce operating expenses by exiting Europe and Australia | Gemini plans to cut costs by leaving Europe and Australia. | Intact | Operations in Europe and Australia continue beyond FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $170 million in 2025 | The company expects revenue near $170 million in 2025. | Broken | Revenue falls below $165 million in FY25 | Revenue: $45.475M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $165 million in FY25. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202645,475,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.22 → $-2.26 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.22 | $265,835,757 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.22 | $265,835,757 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.22 | $265,785,757 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.22 | $265,785,757 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.22 | $265,785,757 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.22 | $265,785,757 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.80 | $268,485,760 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.82 | $263,488,130 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.82 | $263,488,130 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.82 | $263,488,130 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.82 | $263,488,130 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.82 | $260,563,130 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.82 | $260,563,130 | 4 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.24 | $260,788,132 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.34 | $223,412,450 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.22 | $220,362,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.22 | $220,362,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.22 | $220,362,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.22 | $220,362,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.35 | $219,977,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.35 | $219,977,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.35 | $219,977,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.35 | $219,977,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.35 | $219,977,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.35 | $219,977,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.35 | $219,977,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.35 | $219,977,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.35 | $219,977,157 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.39 | $219,131,838 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.39 | $219,131,838 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.39 | $219,131,838 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.39 | $219,131,838 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.39 | $219,131,838 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.39 | $219,131,838 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.38 | $219,764,963 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.38 | $219,546,634 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.38 | $219,546,634 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.38 | $219,546,634 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.38 | $219,546,634 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.38 | $219,546,634 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.38 | $219,546,634 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.38 | $219,546,634 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.38 | $219,546,634 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.38 | $219,546,634 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.38 | $219,780,078 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.38 | $219,780,078 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.38 | $219,780,078 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.28 | $223,379,254 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.28 | $223,379,254 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.28 | $223,379,254 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.28 | $223,379,254 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.25 | $225,387,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.25 | $225,387,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.25 | $225,387,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.25 | $225,387,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.25 | $225,387,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.25 | $225,387,394 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.25 | $225,498,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.25 | $225,498,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.25 | $225,498,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-2.26 | $224,798,505 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.