GERDAU SA (GGB)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.97+0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GGB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
Why it matters: Unemployment claims data can signal economic health. This affects demand for steel and related products.
Watch forWeekly claims drop a lot. This shows the job market is getting better.
Also watch forWeekly claims go up. This suggests the economy is weak.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a shift in the declining phase of the sector. This could improve Gerdau's outlook.
Supportive ifThree-year revenue growth in the materials sector turns positive.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic weakness. This could hurt steel demand.
Worry ifUnemployment claims rise above 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Less concerning ifUnemployment claims stay below 250,000 for two weeks in a row.
Why it matters: This report shows revenue trends and how the sector is doing. It helps us understand Gerdau's place in a shrinking materials sector.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth is now positive compared to last quarter.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue is still going down or gives negative guidance.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $299 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,826 loss on $10,000 · 28.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: CPI impacts consumer demand and inflation. Changes could affect Gerdau's pricing power.
Watch forCPI rises more than 0.4% month over month.
Also watch forCPI falls or rises less than 0.1% month over month.
Why it matters: If revenue growth turns positive, it could mean the materials sector is recovering.
Supportive ifPositive revenue growth over three years shows the sector may be recovering.
Worry ifNegative revenue growth over three years shows the sector is still shrinking.
Why it matters: The PPI affects input costs for Gerdau. Higher prices could improve margins.
Watch forPPI increases more than 0.5% month over month.
Also watch forPPI decreases or increases less than 0.1% month over month.
Why it matters: Positive GDP growth could signal a recovery in the materials sector. This may help Gerdau's revenue outlook.
Supportive ifGDP growth for Q2 2026 reported above 0%.
Worry ifGDP growth for Q2 2026 reported below 0%.
Why it matters: The Producer Price Index release could impact pricing power and margins for Gerdau.
Watch forPPI has a big increase. This suggests steel producers have better pricing power.
Also watch forPPI shows a decline or stagnation, indicating pressure on margins.
Why it matters: Stronger GDP growth could boost demand for steel and improve Gerdau's outlook.
Supportive ifGDP growth in the second estimate exceeds 2% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifGDP growth in the second estimate is below 1% quarter over quarter.