Graco Inc. (GGG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$77.880.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GGG
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $78 GGG trades at 25× p/e, below its 26× p/e peer median, but our blended $71 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well below the analyst range. Analysts target $92–$96. Note: our $71 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($92–$96). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $83 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $94.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $162.91 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $168.33 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $20.63 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$92.00 – $96.00 (median $94.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-07-24
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 43% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 13.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.02/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $32.43 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $71.22 | 16.9 | 4.04 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $91.41 | 24.5 | 3.72 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $69.94 | 20.4 | 3.42 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $39.11 | 2.9 | 13.68 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $96.56 | 31.5 | 3.07 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $22.40 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $80.26 | 26.1 | 3.07 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $79.75 | 25.6 | 3.11 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $139.02 | 24.5 | 5.66 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $79.38 | 20.4 | 3.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $47.23 | 2.9 | 16.52 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $122.24 | 31.5 | 3.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $101.60 | 26.1 | 3.89 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $183.86 | 24.5 | 7.49 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $89.80 | 20.4 | 4.40 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $53.43 | 2.9 | 18.69 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $138.29 | 31.5 | 4.40 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $114.94 | 26.1 | 4.40 | Analyst | high |