Graco Inc. (GGG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$77.880.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GGG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
GGG — director transition
Dated 2026-06-15
Director — Mr. Steven B. Hedlund: Steven B. Hedlund was appointed as a director and will serve on the Audit Committee and Management Organization and Compensation Committee.
Why it matters: Caterpillar's strong RFP status may change how Graco competes.
Watch forCaterpillar has a big rise in new contracts or RFP wins.
Also watch forCaterpillar's RFP status gets weaker or does not improve.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Graco is doing in a tough market.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) exceeds analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Also watch forEPS falls short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: Comparing performance will show how well Graco is doing in the current market. It can indicate competitive strength.
Watch forGraco's stock outperforms peers like CAT and GE over the next quarter.
Also watch forGraco's stock underperforms peers like CAT and GE over the next quarter.
Why it matters: Sanjiv Gupta's leadership can affect Graco's money plans and growth. His experience may help performance.
Supportive ifGupta's appointment brings good changes in money plans and performance.
Worry ifThere are no clear changes in money plans or performance is still weak.
Why it matters: Improving core product growth is key to Graco's strategy. It indicates how well they are executing their plans.
Supportive ifGross profit from core products increases in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifGross profit from core products continues to decline in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Closing this deal would help Graco with adhesives and quality checks. It fits their growth plan and could increase revenue.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes as planned in Graco's third quarter. This will improve their industrial offerings.
Worry ifThe deal does not close. This is due to unmet conditions or regulatory problems.
Why it matters: Gross profit trends indicate how well Graco is managing costs and driving growth from core products.
Worry ifGross profit increases from $280.6M in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifGross profit decreases or remains below $280.6M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Steven B. Hedlund's experience may influence Graco's strategic direction. His insights could drive growth or change priorities.
Watch forHedlund's work shows a clear strategy improvement. It also brings new ideas.
Also watch forThere are no clear changes in strategy or performance since his appointment.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifRevenue growth is speeding up to 10% each year.
Worry ifRevenue growth keeps slowing down to below 5% each year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Graco and its peers.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector increases back toward 8% or higher.
Worry if3-year revenue growth remains at 6% or declines further.
Why it matters: Meeting the 10% growth target shows Graco is on track with its revenue goals. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 10% or more compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal shows Graco cares about saving costs. It affects profits and investor trust.
Supportive ifConfirmation of $30M in annualized cost savings reported by the end of FY2026.
Worry ifWatch for no big cost savings or signs of rising costs.
Why it matters: Good integration can improve Graco's skills and help it grow. This is key for success.
Supportive ifLook for good news about cost savings or revenue growth from Valco Melton in six months.
Worry ifWatch for bad news about integration problems or not reaching expected cost savings.
Why it matters: His experience may shape Graco's plans and growth. This matters for the company's future.
Watch forLook for positive changes in board choices or plans linked to Hedlund's advice.
Also watch forNo clear changes in strategy or results after his appointment.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$78 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $207 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,262 loss on $10,000 · 22.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.