Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-26 · fmp
Graco Inc. (GGG)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$67.97-2.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.48 → 3.46 EPS · FY ending Dec 26, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GGG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of Valco Melton acquisition | The Valco Melton deal supports this growth. | Intact | acquisition fails to contribute to revenue growth or causes disruption | Record Q3 sales vs positive contribution target Graco reported record Q3 2026 sales, supporting the strategic goal of accelerating growth through the Valco Melton acquisition. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “LONG-TERM STRATEGIC GROWTH DRIVERS DRIVE GROWTH FROM CORE PRODUCTS MEET FUTURE CUSTOMER NEEDS ACCELERATE GROWTH THROUGH M&A Drive measurable revenue and margin growth from Innovate today to serve customers tomorrow by Strengthen our balanced approach to growth by our core product lines through increased customer positioning our products, processes and systems increasing focus on strategic mergers and acquisitions value and loyalty.” “In comparison, the compound annual growth rate of the S&P500 over the same period is 9.4% generating a 3,180% return.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-26 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a measured industrial growth thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The thesis is intact, with recent business momentum improving, but management’s growth ambitions have limited proof in the supplied evidence.
The valuation signal is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral. Recent valuation and momentum measures improved, and the priced-in assessment is tagged justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, performance is assessed as neutral, and the company has missed earnings across recent quarters despite a low estimated miss risk. Management aims to grow revenue by at least 10% annually and use acquisitions to accelerate growth, but the latest evidence does not establish delivery on those goals or show core-product results. The sector backdrop is a headwind, while management is rated stable.
The multi-year view depends on whether GGG can turn its stated growth priorities into measurable revenue and margin progress. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; continued strength from industrial bellwethers such as GEV, PH, and EMR could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results from those peers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains intact, with improved momentum and peer-relative valuation offset by limited evidence of growth delivery, recent earnings misses, and a sector headwind. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain gross profit near recent levels (~$280M quarterly) | Profit margins remain stable near current levels. | Intact | gross profit falls below $280M quarterly average | Gross profit: $296.223M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $280M per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 21, 2026296,223,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue growth at or above 6.6% | A primary condition in Graco Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6.6% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6.6% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 7.92% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6.6% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 21, 20267.91872 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “$2.2B BUSINESS MODEL STRENGTH 2025 REVENUE % of Total Sales 48% 40% >1.5X REVENUE FROM HIGH REVENUE FROM R&D INVESTMENT VALUE, LOW VOLUME PARTS & ACCESSORIES COMPARED TO PEERS** PRODUCTS *Select distributors serve multiple divisions **Based on a 5-year average, 2021 – 2025, Peers: ITW, LECO, DOV, IEX, NDSN, 9 GRACO VISION Increase revenue by 10%+ annually on average, Grow earnings by 12%+ Drive above market 1 2 3 with about two-thirds from core business annually, on average, shareholder returns.” Revenue was $586.385 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.43 → $3.46 · observed estimates
$2.47B → $2.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.43 | $2,470,330,700 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.43 | $2,470,330,700 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.48 | $2,469,963,010 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.48 | $2,469,963,010 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.48 | $2,469,963,010 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.48 | $2,469,963,010 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.49 | $2,458,167,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.50 | $2,457,945,222 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.50 | $2,457,945,222 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.50 | $2,457,945,222 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.50 | $2,457,945,222 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.50 | $2,457,945,222 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.50 | $2,457,945,222 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.50 | $2,457,945,222 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.50 | $2,457,945,222 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.50 | $2,457,945,222 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.49 | $2,457,945,222 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.48 | $2,463,278,556 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.49 | $2,480,323,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.49 | $2,480,323,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.49 | $2,480,323,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.49 | $2,480,323,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.49 | $2,480,323,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.49 | $2,480,323,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.49 | $2,480,323,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.49 | $2,480,323,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.52 | $2,497,334,111 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.52 | $2,497,356,333 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.52 | $2,497,356,333 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.52 | $2,497,356,333 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.52 | $2,497,356,333 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.52 | $2,497,356,333 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.52 | $2,497,356,333 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.50 | $2,501,134,111 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.49 | $2,513,349,889 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.46 | $2,525,493,189 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.46 | $2,525,493,189 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.46 | $2,525,493,189 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.46 | $2,525,493,189 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.46 | $2,533,681,778 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.46 | $2,533,681,778 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.46 | $2,533,681,778 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.46 | $2,533,681,778 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.46 | $2,533,681,778 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.46 | $2,533,681,778 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.46 | $2,533,681,778 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.46 | $2,533,681,778 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.