Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Galaxy Digital Inc (GLXY)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.98-7.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GLXY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities improves toward break-even | It is improving cash flow, cutting losses from $1.07 billion to $83 million. | Improving | Cash flow worsens below negative $200M next year | Cash from operations: $463.838M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations better than negative $100M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026463,838,370 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder: the company is loss-making, recent financial performance is weak, and management is rated volatile. The three-to-six-month thesis is on watch, with medium confidence after confidence fell from high.
The valuation model describes GLXY as cheap versus peers, with a small premium to peers, but model confidence is low. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in signal is tagged justified and fragility is low; together, these measures do not point to a clear expectations cushion.
Near term, the October 27 earnings beat is positive, but earnings surprises have been trending down and the company had a deep miss in its recent history. Over the multi-year view, data center profits and EBITDA rose sharply from Q2 to Q3, 133 MW of critical IT load has been delivered, and digital asset activity also expanded; Phase II construction remains underway.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued delivery and scaling of Helios and data center capacity, alongside growth in digital asset services and institutional partnerships. Near term, guidance cuts or rate cuts are listed as risks, while stronger results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
GLXY has evidence of progress in data centers and digital asset services, but weak recent performance, loss-making earnings, elevated risk, and low valuation-model confidence leave the 1-to-3-year thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New products and AI data center plans could boost value. |
| Improving |
| No progress or negative news on new product launches and data center plans |
Helios Phase II exit run rate $800M-$850M vs qualitative growth target Galaxy outlined $800M-$850M Helios Phase II exit run rate and beat earnings, despite tenant uncertainty. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $4.5 billion next quarter | Galaxy Digital is growing revenue toward $4.5 billion next quarter. | Intact | Revenue falls below $4.0 billion next quarter | Revenue: $8.557B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.5B. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 10, 20268,557,336,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.25 → $0.09 · observed estimates
$58.04B → $42.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.25 | $58,040,839,326 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.09 | $74,300,145,930 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.09 | $74,300,145,930 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.25 | $58,040,839,326 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.05 | $74,055,636,130 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.05 | $74,055,636,130 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.05 | $74,055,636,130 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.24 | $56,338,832,160 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.24 | $56,338,832,160 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.01 | $70,270,414,200 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.24 | $53,878,680,718 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.01 | $70,270,414,200 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.03 | $68,071,092,340 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.09 | $72,241,711,400 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.19 | $49,336,896,772 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.05 | $69,723,133,740 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.05 | $69,723,133,740 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.05 | $69,723,133,740 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.21 | $69,614,636,090 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.19 | $49,336,896,772 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.19 | $49,336,896,772 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.19 | $49,336,896,772 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.19 | $49,336,896,772 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.19 | $49,336,896,772 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.19 | $49,336,896,772 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.19 | $49,336,896,772 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.18 | $47,281,386,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.18 | $47,281,386,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.18 | $47,281,386,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.18 | $47,281,386,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.18 | $47,281,386,332 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.18 | $46,940,930,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.18 | $46,940,930,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.18 | $46,940,930,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.18 | $46,940,930,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.18 | $46,940,930,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.18 | $46,940,930,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.18 | $46,940,930,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.18 | $46,940,930,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.18 | $46,940,930,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.18 | $46,940,930,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.18 | $46,940,930,198 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,840 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.20 | $46,872,057,664 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.18 | $46,281,193,031 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.18 | $46,281,193,031 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.18 | $46,281,193,031 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.18 | $46,281,193,031 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.22 | $46,901,372,534 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.22 | $46,901,372,534 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.22 | $46,901,372,534 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.21 | $46,841,831,172 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.21 | $46,841,831,172 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.21 | $46,841,831,172 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.24 | $43,983,154,249 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.24 | $43,983,154,249 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.17 | $43,983,154,249 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.24 | $43,507,215,788 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.23 | $43,443,777,326 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.23 | $43,443,777,326 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.23 | $43,443,777,326 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.20 | $43,278,194,968 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.04 | $42,074,893,293 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.04 | $42,074,893,293 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.04 | $42,278,197,710 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.04 | $42,278,197,710 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.04 | $42,278,197,710 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.09 | $42,278,197,710 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.09 | $42,278,197,710 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.