Reading GNTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GNTX free→
GNTX
GentexNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$25.86+0.62%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is neutral and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, GNTX trades above typical levels, indicating a favorable position. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could provide momentum. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Auto Parts
- Market cap
- $5.33B
- Employees
- 6,398
- IPO date
- 1995-04-28
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-24
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$26.98consensus
Range $24.48 – $29.96
vs price: -4% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$38.25consensus
Range $34.45 – $45.58
vs price: -32% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $26 GNTX trades at 14× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.0x
peer 14.6x · own history 17.4x
Premium
1.0x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
-4%
our forecast 18%
Our fair value
$26.98
range $24.18 – $29.96
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
78th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.48x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
41st pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish6 analysts, 44% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.50 (+2.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 0 cut, 6 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strongProvisional
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$227.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,809.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayMedium confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for dividend payments remaining at $0.12 per share
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows Gentex's promise to give value to shareholders. Any change may worry them.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Dividend remains at $0.12 per share for the next quarter.
Confirms the other:Dividend is cut below $0.12 per share.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GNTX yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ORLY, AZO, and BWA keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting GNTX and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If GNTX raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-24), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If GNTX cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-24), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ORLY, AZO, and BWA start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping GNTX and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits GNTX and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-241mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. (a) On April 24, 2026 Gentex Corporation issued a news release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the news release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to the Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and the attached Exhibit shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.