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GO
Grocery OutletNASDAQConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$9.58+1.70%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts on the next call and the performance of sector bellwethers. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Grocery Stores
- Market cap
- $931.85M
- Employees
- 1,642
- IPO date
- 2019-05-13
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.58. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$14.23consensus
Range $12.00 – $19.61
vs price: -33% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$14.09consensus
Range $9.56 – $25.03
vs price: -32% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $9.58 GO trades at 14× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median. Our $14 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $8.00–$15. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
14.1x
peer 17.4x · own history 30.6x
Premium
0.8x peer
0.5x its own history
Growth the price needs
-33%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$14.27
range $12.00 – $19.63
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 33% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
2nd pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.56x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -18.5% / 30d, n=14for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.12 (-18.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 13 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.5% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in (~3.0 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$213.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$496.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,897.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for sector revenue growth to pick up
Why it matters: A rebound in revenue growth could signal a shift in the consumer staples sector. This may help Grocery Outlet's performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is more than 5% year over year. This shows a positive trend.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is under 5%. This means growth is still slow.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GO yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If GO raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-09), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for GO and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If GO beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +30% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If GO cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-06-09), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like KR, SFM, and ACI start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), GO and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-094d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departures of Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising & Purchasing Officer On June 9, 2026, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (the "Company") announced that Christopher M. Miller, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, will depart the Company effective June 26, 2026, and that Matthe…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-4.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.