Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$287.30+3.25%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GOOG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 29.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GOOG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026, Alphabet Inc. (“ Alphabet ” or the “ Company ”) is issuing a press release and holding a conference call regarding its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or incorpo…
Why it matters: Alphabet raised large sums to expand AI compute. Spending above its stated range could add pressure as it builds capacity.
Worry ifAlphabet reports spending of more than $190 billion in 2026.
Less concerning ifAlphabet reports spending of $190 billion or less in 2026.
Why it matters: Cloud grew 103% in Q3, after 82% in Q2. Another strong quarter would show that AI demand still brings in new sales.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, Google Cloud revenue grows at least 80% year over year.
Worry ifGoogle Cloud revenue growth falls below 50% year over year.
Why it matters: The sector data points to weaker recent performance. If Alphabet's ad sales slow, it may show that demand is also cooling.
Worry ifGoogle's advertising revenue grows less than 5% from a year earlier in a reported quarter.
Less concerning ifGoogle advertising revenue grows at least 10% year over year in a reported quarter.
Why it matters: The program can raise cash, but new shares can dilute existing owners. Alphabet issued shares for $12.4 billion in Q3.
Worry ifA filing shows more than $10 billion of additional Class A or Class C shares sold under the ATM program.
Less concerning ifAlphabet reports no further ATM share sales in its next quarterly filing.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$103 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $278 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,032 loss on $10,000 · 30.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.