Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$128.71+0.04%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $128.71. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $129 GPC trades at 19× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median, but our blended $103 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $140 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $7.09/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $33.06 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $14.93 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $70.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $147.11 | 23.2 | 6.35 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $131.25 | 13.9 | 11.77 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $77.38 | 19.5 | 3.97 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $155.91 | 23.2 | 6.73 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $373.13 | 2.1 | 178.94 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $428.54 | 63.7 | 6.73 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $49.42 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $112.10 | 16.7 | 6.73 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $159.11 | 23.2 | 6.87 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $230.30 | 23.2 | 9.94 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $46.29 | 19.5 | 2.37 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $208.95 | 23.2 | 9.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $428.42 | 2.1 | 205.46 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $574.34 | 63.7 | 9.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $150.23 | 16.7 | 9.02 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $310.51 | 23.2 | 13.40 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $32.86 | 19.5 | 1.69 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $228.67 | 23.2 | 9.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $468.84 | 2.1 | 224.84 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $628.52 | 63.7 | 9.87 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $164.41 | 16.7 | 9.87 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.