Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$124.44-1.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GPC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-20
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 20, 2026, Genuine Parts Company issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K of Genuine Parts Company, including the exhibit attached hereto, is being "furnished" and shall not be dee…
Why it matters: The two events will lay out each business's plans before the planned split. Clear targets and steps would make the plans easier to track.
Supportive ifAt the December 8 and 9 investor days, both teams give named growth goals and clear plans for focused investment.
Worry ifEither investor day is delayed, or either team gives no clear growth goals or investment plans.
Why it matters: GPC had $502 million in free cash flow through September. The full-year floor is $550 million, leaving little room for a shortfall.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is below $550 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is at least $550 million and no more than $700 million.
Why it matters: The split is a top management priority. A delay or higher costs could disrupt both businesses' launch plans.
Watch forThe split closes in Q1 2027, after the board gives final approval and the Form 10 takes effect.
Also watch forThe split misses Q1 2027, or the board approval or Form 10 filing remains incomplete after that quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $292 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,748 loss on $10,000 · 37.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.