Genuine Parts Company (GPC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$138.08+0.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
GPC — credit agreement
Dated 2026-04-28
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 28, 2026, Genuine Parts Company (the "Company") entered into a seventh amendment (the "Seventh Amendment") to its existing Syndicated Facility Agreement, dated October 30, 2020, by and among the Company, UAP, Inc., certain designated Company subsidiaries, as borrowers, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, domestic swing line lender and L/C issuer, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., acting through its Toronto Branch, as Canadian swing…
Why it matters: Hitting or beating EPS guidance shows better performance and boosts investor trust.
Supportive ifReported diluted earnings per share between $6.10 and $6.60.
Worry ifThey reported diluted earnings per share under $6.10.
Why it matters: This separation could unlock value and improve focus on each business segment.
Supportive ifThey will announce that the split into two public companies is done.
Worry ifThere may be a delay or cancellation of the split plan.
Why it matters: Completing the separation will make the company's focus and strategy clearer. This could create value for shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says the separation is on track to finish in early 2027.
Worry ifThere are new delays in the separation timeline.
Why it matters: Earnings per share guidance shows management's confidence in making money. Meeting this range shows strong finances.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance is between $6.10 and $6.60.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance is below $6.10.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $275 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,748 loss on $10,000 · 37.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS shows how well the company makes money. Staying in this range means good performance.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EPS reported within the range of $7.50 to $8.00.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS reported below $7.50.
Why it matters: This could unlock value and improve focus for both segments.
Supportive ifLook for a timeline or updates on the separation process.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the separation process.
Why it matters: Sales growth is important for keeping investor trust and hitting yearly goals. Strong growth shows high demand.
Supportive ifQ3 total sales growth is at or above 3% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 total sales growth is below 3% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in sales growth, impacting the full-year outlook.
Worry ifQ2 sales growth was less than 3%.
Less concerning ifQ2 sales growth was more than 5.5%.
Why it matters: Lower EPS guidance may show less profit and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifEPS guidance was less than $6.10.
Less concerning ifEPS guidance was more than $6.60.
Why it matters: This separation is key for future growth and operational focus. If completed on time, it could enhance shareholder value.
Supportive ifThe company will finish the split by the first quarter of 2027.
Worry ifThe separation is delayed beyond the first quarter of 2027.
Why it matters: The new EPS guidance shows they are confident about performance during changes.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms adjusted EPS guidance of $7.50 to $8.00 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance to below $7.50 for 2026.
Why it matters: Falling below the free cash flow target could signal issues in cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported above $550 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported below $550 million for 2026.