GPGI, Inc. (GPGI)
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.63-2.36%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsManufacturing - Metal FabricationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPGI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GPGI — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-06
Other Events The Company’s board of directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend in the amount of $0.0025 per share of Class A common stock of the Company, payable on September 1, 2026 to all holders of record as of August 17, 2026. Item 9.01 (d) Financial Statements and Exhibits Exhibit No. Exhibit Description 99.1 Press Release of GPGI, Inc. dated August 6. 2026 99.2 Investor Presentation of GPGI, Inc. dated August 6, 2026 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline…
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may show management's trust in cash flow and finances.
Watch forManagement announces a rise in the dividend per share.
Also watch forManagement announces a cut or pause in the dividend.
Why it matters: Reaffirming guidance shows management believes they can meet targets. This is true even with market issues.
Supportive ifManagement says Pro Forma Adjusted Net Sales will be $1,950 million to $2,100 million in 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers the full year 2026 guidance a lot.
Why it matters: Updates on ROS will show if GPGI can improve performance at both CompoSecure and Husky.
Watch forManagement says there is good progress in ROS rollout for both businesses.
Also watch forManagement reports delays or problems in ROS rollout.
Why it matters: Getting $105 to $120 million in Q2 Adjusted EBITDA is key for future profits.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA was more than $120 million.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $105 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$236 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $615 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,568 loss on $10,000 · 55.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting EBITDA targets is key for GPGI's financial health. Investors will look for signs of operational improvement.
Watch forPro Forma Adjusted EBITDA is more than $610 million for FY26.
Also watch forA revision of EBITDA guidance downward below $550 million for FY26.
Why it matters: The reincorporation may affect GPGI's governance and tax structure. This can impact investor confidence.
Watch forA public announcement will confirm the move is complete.
Also watch forNo news or delays in the move beyond what is expected.
Why it matters: Reincorporation may help GPGI be more flexible. It can also attract more investment.
Supportive ifState filings show that the reincorporation process is done.
Worry ifThere are delays or issues with the reincorporation process.
Why it matters: Sales in Q2 must fall between $425 million and $475 million to show growth momentum.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted Net Sales were over $475 million.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted Net Sales were under $425 million.
Why it matters: A big drop in Adjusted EBITDA shows problems at Husky. This would hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA down more than 10% year over year compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA remains stable or grows year over year.
Why it matters: This guidance will indicate GPGI's revenue growth outlook. It is crucial for assessing future performance.
Supportive ifManagement gives Pro Forma Adjusted Net Sales Guidance. It shows an increase from last quarter.
Worry ifGuidance shows a decrease or no growth in Pro Forma Adjusted Net Sales compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: This guidance helps us understand GPGI's profit outlook. It is key for financial health.
Supportive ifManagement gives Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA Guidance. It is better than last quarter.
Worry ifGuidance shows a drop or no change in Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA from last quarter.
Why it matters: This would signal ongoing weakness at Husky and challenge GPGI's full-year guidance.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted Net Sales were below $425 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted Net Sales were above $475 million.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can meet its full year guidance amid market challenges.
Worry ifQ3 Pro Forma Adjusted Net Sales reported at or below $473.2 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Pro Forma Adjusted Net Sales exceed $500 million.