Reading GPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GPK free→Reading GPK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GPK free→NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers that are above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 GPK trades at 9× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 56% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1462).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.29x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.18 → $0.14 (-24.6% / 30d). 0 raised, 8 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 10% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$167.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$405.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,122.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good cash flow management. It makes investors feel secure about returns.
Confirms:The dividend per share remains at $0.11 in the next quarter.
Disproves:The company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Securities lawsuits could impact investor confidence and capital allocation.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective June 11, 2026, following the Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Mr. Philip R. Martens retired from his positions as a member and Chairman of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Graphic Packaging Holding Company (the “Company”). Mr. Larry M. Venturelli, a member of the Board since 2016, was elected Chairman of the Board, effective upon Mr…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GPK Graphic Packaging | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
SW Smurfit Westrock | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
PKG Packaging Corporation of America | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IP International Paper | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | fair | elevated |
AMCR Amcor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=272).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Implement cost reduction and operational efficiency initiatives to optimize the operational footprint.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income decreased from $221M in 2025-Q1 to $19M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in cost efficiency. Management has emphasized cost discipline, but financial results show a need for further improvement.
“Executed cost reduction and operational efficiency initiatives.”
“Improve our cost structure; drive substantial free cash flow.”
Maintain capital spending guidance of approximately $450 million for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Capital expenditures were $140M in 2026-Q1, aligning with the annual guidance of $450M. Management is delivering on its capital allocation commitment, maintaining discipline in spending.
Focus on expanding margins and accelerating free cash flow to strengthen the balance sheet.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net cash from operating activities was -$113M in 2026-Q1, indicating challenges in accelerating free cash flow. Despite management's focus, financial results show limited progress in margin expansion and cash flow acceleration.
Continue to prioritize capital allocation by issuing green bonds.
Continue to maintain regular dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Growth in the materials sector may help Graphic Packaging do better.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains negative.
Why it matters: Keeping dividends shows financial health. It shows management wants to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:Look for news about continued or higher dividend payments.
Disproves:Look for news about dividend cuts or suspensions.
Why it matters: Using green bonds can help with capital allocation. This can support future investments.
Confirms:Announcement of successful projects funded by green bonds.
Disproves:No updates or negative news on green bond projects.
Why it matters: If operating income goes up, it shows better cost management. This is important for making money.
Confirms:Operating income in Q2 shows a significant increase from $19 million in Q1.
Disproves:Operating income in Q2 remains at or below $19 million.
Why it matters: The use of green bonds could enhance financial flexibility and support growth initiatives. This is new for the company.
Confirms:Graphic Packaging uses the $141.4 million from green bonds well in key projects.
Disproves:The company has trouble using the green bond money well or shows bad financial results.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Graphic Packaging can improve its operating income. This is key for future growth.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows operating income growth year over year.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows that operating income went down compared to last year.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On May 19, 2026, Graphic Packaging International, LLC (“Graphic Packaging”), the primary operating subsidiary of Graphic Packaging Holding Company, entered into a loan agreement with the Mission Economic Development Corporation (“MEDC”) for the proceeds of the MEDC’s offering of approximately $141.4 million aggregate principal amount of tax-exempt “green” bonds due 2064 with a ma…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On May 5, 2026, Graphic Packaging Holding Company issued a press release reporting its first quarter 2026 results. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. As provided in General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this
“Reaffirmed 2026 capital spending guidance of approximately $450 million.”
“2026 capital spending of approximately $450 million.”
“Focused on delivering on commitments including expanding margins, accelerating free cash flow.”
“Drive substantial free cash flow to strengthen the balance sheet.”