Graphic Packaging (GPK)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$10.43-2.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put GPK beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Free cash flow between $700 million and $800 million in 2026: FCF guidance $600M-$700M vs $700M target.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 0% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 58% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskGPK's paper packaging business must continue to expand margins and accelerate free cash flow to justify its price. Revenue growth has been steady, with a recent earnings beat showing a 27% surprise. It trades at 9.5× P/E versus a peer median of 18×, indicating the price reflects less growth than forecasted. The primary risk is the fragile earnings quality, as reported profits are not well backed by cash. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. GPK is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering GPK (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put GPK next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Expand margins and accelerate free cash flow
Profit decline impacts margin expansion and cash flow objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Expand margins and accelerate free cash flow
Positive cash flow projection supports margin expansion and cash flow goals.
Advances: Maintain dividend payments
Dividend declaration supports capital allocation objective.
Advances: Expand margins and accelerate free cash flow
Entering recycled paperboard aligns with margin expansion goals.
New product aligns with growth and margin expansion objectives.
Advances: Expand margins and accelerate free cash flow
New product aligns with margin expansion and cash flow goals.
Negative Catalyst Watch indicates potential headwinds.
Leadership change may impact strategic direction and execution.