Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$71.09+0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GRBK — officer change
Dated 2026-08-27
Director — Harry Brandler: A director resigned to pursue other activities, which is a genuine departure from the board but not a loss of a senior executive officer like a CEO or CFO.
Why it matters: Quick changes will help rebuild investor trust and clear up financial reports.
Supportive ifThe company will file updated financial statements by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifUpdated financial statements are late past Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This report will give details on revenue and performance during recent challenges.
Watch forEarnings show revenue growth compared to past quarters, despite recent problems.
Also watch forEarnings report shows lower revenue or more financial errors.
Why it matters: Stable backlog revenue shows a healthy demand for homes. It shows the company can turn orders into sales.
Supportive ifBacklog revenue in Q3 stays above $387 million. This shows strong future sales.
Worry ifBacklog revenue falls below $350 million. This suggests possible sales issues.
Why it matters: The restatement may make investors less confident. This could lower stock value.
Worry ifThe new financial statements show a big drop in reported revenue.
Less concerning ifThe new financial statements show little change in revenue figures.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $324 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,399 loss on $10,000 · 24.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase in new home orders shows strong demand and supports growth. It indicates the effectiveness of the company's sales strategies.
Supportive ifNet new home orders in Q3 exceed 1,079 units, indicating continued demand growth.
Worry ifNet new home orders fall below 1,000 units, suggesting weakening demand.
Why it matters: Successful growth could boost revenue from financial services. It may also help overall growth.
Supportive ifGreen Brick Mortgage has a successful launch in the Atlanta market.
Worry ifGreen Brick Mortgage fails to launch in the Atlanta market as planned.
Why it matters: A drop in new home orders would signal weakening demand, impacting future revenue.
Worry ifQ3 new home orders are below 1,000 units. This shows a big drop in demand.
Less concerning ifNew home orders are above 1,000 units. This suggests demand is stable.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean higher costs. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifHomebuilding gross margin falls below 29% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifHomebuilding gross margin stays at or above 29% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The restatement may change how investors feel. It could also affect financial numbers.
Worry ifRestated financials show a big change in reported revenues. They also show changes in profits.
Less concerning ifRestated financials confirm earlier revenue and profit numbers. There are no big changes.
Why it matters: This level of investment shows trust in growth and stability.
Supportive ifCAPEX reported at or above $300M in the next quarterly results.
Worry ifCAPEX falls below $300M in the next quarterly results.
Why it matters: More backlog units mean strong sales and high demand in the future.
Supportive ifBacklog units exceed 700 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifBacklog units remain below 700 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can maintain sales and margins amid challenges.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $1.39. This shows good performance despite market issues.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $1.39, suggesting ongoing challenges in the housing market.
Why it matters: Strong growth in mortgage revenue may show successful expansion and new business areas.
Supportive ifMortgage revenue increases more than 330% year over year.
Worry ifMortgage revenue growth is less than 330% year over year.
Why it matters: The filing will clarify past revenue reporting issues. This impacts investor trust.
Worry ifThe company filed new financial results. These fix earlier mistakes in revenue.
Less concerning ifNo filing occurs by the next earnings date on July 29, 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margins means costs are rising. It also shows pricing pressures.
Worry ifGross margins drop below 29% in Q3, pointing to increased costs or reduced pricing power.
Less concerning ifGross margins stay at or above 29%, showing stable cost management.
Why it matters: Strong growth in financial services helps overall earnings. It shows the company is expanding.
Supportive ifFinancial services operating income is over $6 million in Q3. This confirms growth in this area.
Worry ifFinancial services income is below $6 million. This shows slower growth.
Why it matters: A big drop in backlog suggests future revenue problems. It also means market conditions may weaken.
Worry ifBacklog revenue drops more than 20% year over year. This indicates possible future sales issues.
Less concerning ifBacklog revenue drops less than 20% year over year. This suggests better demand retention.