Green Brick Partners, Inc. (GRBK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$65.90-0.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -3.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GRBK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026 , Green Brick Partners, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial and operational results for the year and third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99 to this report.
Why it matters: Q3 backlog value was down 17% from a year earlier. A rise would show orders are rebuilding future home revenue.
Supportive ifA later quarterly report shows backlog value above $456.8 million, the Q3 2025 level.
Worry ifA later report shows backlog value at or below $379.3 million, the Q3 2026 level.
Why it matters: Owned lots rose 11.4% year over year, while Q3 margin fell to 28%. The next reports can test whether land growth pays off.
Watch forOwned lots stay above 40,869, and homebuilding gross margin rises above 28.0%.
Also watch forOwned lots fall below 40,869 and homebuilding gross margin drops below 28.0%.
Why it matters: Q3 orders rose 3%, but sales pace fell to 2.8 per community. A further drop could point to weaker demand.
Worry ifQ4 net new home orders fall below 926, or sales pace drops below 2.8 per community.
Less concerning ifQ4 net new home orders top 926 and sales pace rises above 2.8 per community.
Why it matters: Liquidity fell from $462 million in Q2 to $325 million in Q3. Further declines could limit room for land spending and debt payments.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows less than $325 million in liquid assets.
Less concerning ifA later report shows liquidity at or above $325 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $314 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,540 loss on $10,000 · 25.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.