Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Grace Therapeutics Inc (GRCE)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.78-1.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GRCE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve FDA approval for GTx-104 | Grace aims to get FDA approval for GTx-104. | Under Pressure | FDA approval not obtained by 2026-Q4 | FDA approval not obtained by 2026-Q4 FDA CRL received April 23, 2026; manufacturing setback threatens launch timelines. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative, development-stage biotech business, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year thesis is in a watch state, with low confidence, weak recent performance, and high risk.
The evidence snapshot provides no valuation or market-expectations data, so whether GRCE is cheap or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. It does show recent pressure after an earnings miss and a private placement, but not what expectations are already reflected in the valuation.
Near term, the elevated risk of an earnings miss reflects erratic surprises and GRCE's smaller size. The company remains loss-making, and cash use continues; the latest quarter also included a larger net loss tied to impairment charges. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on addressing FDA feedback and completing the manufacturing steps needed to resubmit the GTx-104 application.
A favorable scenario depends on GTx-104 regulatory progress, manufacturing readiness, and sufficient cash runway. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could add pressure, while stronger results and guidance from healthcare sector leaders could support sector momentum. The outlook also hinges on whether management can control cash burn while pursuing its stated priorities.
Over the next one to three years, GRCE's thesis remains uncertain and execution-dependent, with regulatory progress weighed against ongoing losses, cash needs, and near-term earnings risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Grace Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No major executive departures over next 4 quarters. |
| Intact |
| Major executive departures occur |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce operating losses to negative $3.0M | Operating losses are shrinking from $4.8M to $3.0M. | Under Pressure | Operating losses exceed -3.0 million USD by 2026-Q4 | Operating income: $-15.917M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Operating losses <= -3.0 million USD by 2026-Q4. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 2026-15,917,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve cash from operations to negative $1.7M | Cash burn is improving from negative $4.1M to negative $1.7M. | Broken | Cash from operations worse than -1.7 million USD by 2026-Q4 | Cash from operations: $-3.221M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= -1.7 million USD by 2026-Q4. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 2026-3,221,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.77 → $-0.47 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.77 | $7,833,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.61 | $1,389,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.61 | $1,389,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.61 | $1,389,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.61 | $1,389,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.61 | $1,389,200 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.56 | $5,694,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.77 | $7,833,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.56 | $5,694,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.77 | $7,833,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.77 | $7,833,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.77 | $7,833,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.77 | $7,833,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.77 | $7,833,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.56 | $5,694,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.77 | $7,833,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.77 | $7,833,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.77 | $7,833,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.77 | $7,833,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.56 | $5,694,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.56 | $5,694,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.56 | $5,694,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.56 | $5,694,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.56 | $5,694,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.56 | $5,694,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.56 | $5,694,600 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.47 | $5,000,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.