Reading GRI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRI free→Reading GRI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GRI free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as recent financials are weak. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.21 GRI trades at 5× p/s, below its 10× p/s peer median. Our $4.24 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 48% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.11x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-3.71 → $-1.20 (+67.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$248.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,275.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,684.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GRI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and, except as otherwise set forth in this Current Report on Form 8-K, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or subject to the liabilities of that section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information contained herein and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed, except as otherwise set forth in this Current Report o…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GRI GRI BIO INC | — | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, GRI Bio, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reiterating its financial results for the fiscal year 2025 and summarizing key recent highlights. A copy of the Company’s press release containing this information is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Se…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously reported, on May 20, 2024, GRI Bio, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an At The Market Offering Agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC (“Wainwright”), pursuant to which the Company may from time to time issue and sell through Wainwright, acting as the Company’s sales agent, shares of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Shares”) (the “ATM Offering”). In connection therewith, on May 20…
Material Modifications to Rights of Security Holders. To the extent required by Item 3.03, the disclosure set forth in
Other Events. On January 9, 2026, GRI Bio, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a prospectus supplement to increase the maximum number of shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share, issuable pursuant to the At The Market Offering Agreement between the Company and H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC, dated May 20, 2024 (the “Sales Agreement”), to up to an aggregate of $7,379,813 of Shares, which does not include the Shares having an aggregate gross sales price of approximate…