Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.87+0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Recent financial performance freshly dropped to the bottom half of its industry.
Groupon aims to grow revenue to about $518 million in 2026. The company targets adjusted EBITDA of up to $80 million. It plans free cash flow of at least $60 million. New management hires support a turnaround effort.
Revenue missed expectations by nearly $100 million recently. The company is loss-making with negative cash flow. Guidance cuts and earnings misses show weak execution. The sector is facing headwinds and risks remain high.
The market expects about 8% revenue growth but recent guidance cuts and earnings misses suggest this is optimistic. Our fair value near $15 implies some recovery, but risks remain elevated.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $75 million in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $60 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on improving operational efficiency through Project Foundry. The current thesis state is weakened, as recent financial performance has declined within its industry.
The market currently prices GRPN with a low expectations gap, indicating that it is seen as justified but fragile. Its valuation reflects a durable premium compared to peers, suggesting that investors expect some level of performance improvement.
Management is focused on achieving specific financial targets, including adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, but recent results have shown mixed progress. The near-term risk is elevated, with a significant probability of missing earnings expectations due to erratic performance.
The future of GRPN depends on the performance of major sector players like GOOGL, GOOG, and META. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for GRPN, while any downturn could negatively impact its momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates a weakened reason to own the stock. The company is implementing a restructuring plan to reduce costs by $20M-$25M annually.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Target full year 2026 free cash flow of at least $60 million to support financial health.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management targets free cash flow of at least $60M for 2026. Free cash flow improved from negative $13.5M in Q1 to positive $15.0M in Q2 2026, showing delivering progress toward the annual goal.
“For full year 2026, the Company expects Free Cash Flow at least $60 million.”
“For full year 2026, the Company expects Free Cash Flow at least $60 million.”
Breaks if: Management turnover increases or restructuring fails to deliver results
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $513 million in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, GRPN's success will rely heavily on management execution and sector performance. Not investment advice.