Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.58-9.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.86 → 0.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GRPN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $75-$80 million in 2026 | The company targets adjusted EBITDA of up to $80 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $75 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative turnaround, not a proven durable compounder: the business is loss-making, risks are high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. The thesis is in a watch state, with the signal recently shifting from mildly favorable to mixed.
GRPN trades at a premium to peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and indicates only a modest expectations gap. The valuation tag is justified, and no fragility gates are active, but these signals do not remove the risk tied to losses and uneven performance.
Near term, management has raised its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA goal, and quarterly Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow improved from Q1 to Q2; Q2 revenue was slightly lower year over year. Project Foundry progress and a return to growth in organic channels are encouraging but mixed, while erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses leave the next results uncertain.
Over the next year, the thesis hinges on management sustaining progress toward its 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow goals and turning Project Foundry into better customer outcomes and operating speed. A guidance cut would be a meaningful setback; Fed rate cuts or continued strong results from sector bellwethers could provide a more supportive backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, GRPN remains a high-risk, mixed turnaround case: cash-flow progress is promising, but losses, execution uncertainty, and a sector headwind keep the thesis unproven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It plans free cash flow of at least $60 million. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $60 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $15.022M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $60 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202615,022,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful COO transition and restructuring execution | A supporting condition in Groupon, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Stable leadership and progress on AI-native strategy. | Improving | Management turnover increases or restructuring fails to deliver results | Qualitative: COO transition complete, restructuring approved, Q2 earnings beat New COO appointed, restructuring plan approved, Q2 2026 earnings beat, AI-native strategy advancing. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to at least $518 million in 2026 | It plans free cash flow of at least $60 million. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $513 million in FY26 | Revenue: $124.675M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $518 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026124,675,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.83 → $0.86 · observed estimates
$0.56B → $0.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.83 | $556,294,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.83 | $556,294,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.83 | $556,294,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.83 | $556,294,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.83 | $556,294,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.83 | $556,294,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.83 | $556,294,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.83 | $556,294,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.83 | $556,294,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.83 | $556,294,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.83 | $556,294,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.81 | $558,200,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.83 | $556,294,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.86 | $560,266,667 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.