Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$15.58-9.99%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
GRPN — COO transition
Dated 2026-05-26
Chief Operating Officer — Jiri Ponrt: Mr. Ponrt resigned from his position as Chief Operating Officer.
Why it matters: Most planned job cuts were due by the end of Q3. Groupon tied the plan to $20 million to $25 million in annual savings.
Supportive ifGroupon reports most planned job cuts are complete and keeps its $20 million to $25 million annual savings goal.
Worry ifGroupon reports that most job cuts are delayed past Q3 or lowers the annual savings goal below $20 million.
Why it matters: Groupon set Q3 billings growth guidance of 4% to 6%. A result below 4% would miss its near-term growth goal.
Worry ifQ3 billings growth is below 4% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 billings growth is 4% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Groupon targets at least $60 million in 2026 free cash flow. Q2 free cash flow was positive $15 million after a Q1 loss.
Worry ifReported 2026 free cash flow is below $60 million.
Less concerning ifReported 2026 free cash flow is at least $60 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$205 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $775 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,290 loss on $10,000 · 52.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.