Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.87+0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GRPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GRPN — COO transition
Dated 2026-05-26
Chief Operating Officer — Jiri Ponrt: Mr. Ponrt resigned from his position as Chief Operating Officer.
Why it matters: Updates on the restructuring plan will indicate if cost savings are on track.
Watch forManagement says the restructuring actions are going well. They are saving money as planned.
Also watch forManagement reports there are delays in the restructuring plan. Some setbacks are also happening.
Why it matters: This growth shows good engagement strategies and that Project Foundry is working.
Supportive ifActive customers grow to over 16.5 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifActive customers are under 16.5 million. This suggests problems with engagement.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal shows they are making progress and improving operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA must be $19 million or more for Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA must be less than $19 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Groupon expects revenue between $126M and $128M for Q2 2026. Meeting this target signals progress in their transformation efforts.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at or above $126M.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $126M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$280 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $787 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,985 loss on $10,000 · 59.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company raised its full year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $75-$80 million. This shows a positive outlook.
Supportive ifThe full year adjusted EBITDA was over $80 million.
Worry ifThe full year adjusted EBITDA was under $75 million.
Why it matters: A new COO may bring fresh strategies to improve performance after recent struggles.
Watch forLook for improvements in operations or good news from the new COO.
Also watch forWatch for ongoing operational problems or bad news.
Why it matters: Carrying out the restructuring plan is important. It can help save costs and improve operations.
Supportive ifUpdates confirming progress on the restructuring plan and cost savings of $20M to $25M.
Worry ifNo updates or setbacks in the restructuring plan by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If they grow, it shows management believes in their AI changes and plans.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported at $128 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue reported below $128 million.
Why it matters: The restructuring plan is important. It helps save money and improve operations.
Supportive ifCompletion of at least 200 headcount reductions by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 200 headcount reductions completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows better cash handling and improved operations.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at $60 million or higher for 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $60 million for 2026.